The ACC is reeling and shifting their distribution model to keep the big schools happy. Does the conference have enough talent to make a run to the CFBPO Championship Game?
This is a three-part series of posts on The State of the ACC in 2025
The age old question: is it Jimmy’s and Joe’s or X’s and O’s? Of course there’s a baseline amount of talent that teams need to have in order to compete for ~15 games at the highest level of college football.
The most talented teams usually survive and advance because of the depth of their roster. The way to win a tournament is typically through depth and mitigation of serious injuries to important players (ie. quarterbacks, unless you’re Ohio State in 2014).
While Arizona State, Boise State, and SMU didn’t have a chance to really compete in the College Football Playoff for the championship- they did make the tournament and that counts for a lot more than what the 2024 Miami Hurricanes managed to pull off under third year coach Mario Cristobal.
Which aspect of Acquisition, Development (individual position coaching, strength and conditioning) and Deployment (depth chart, position assignments, scheme) is worth the most? Many college coaches and recruiting staffers have told me that talent level (acquisition) is worth about 70% of the puzzle.
Most coaches agree that Deployment (scheme) is worth only about 10% and possibly less, even down to 5%. Which explains how Ed Orgeron, Mack Brown, Urban Meyer and Dabo Swinney can win national championships in different eras. Those aren’t exactly coaches known for their schematic prowess and neither Swinney nor Meyer had previous coordinator experience.
That leaves development somewhere in the ballpark of 20% of a program’s success rate. Michigan and Clemson might disprove that theory while OSU and 2019 LSU prove it. But clearly the most important aspect is recruiting and that’s what we’ll dissect today.
High School Recruiting
In 2022, Miami was 16th in the country with zero five stars, and 10 four stars. In the ACC, that put Miami behind Clemson (10th, two five stars), and UNC (11th, two five stars) and ahead of Florida State (20th).
The two Clemson five stars were QB Cade Klubnik and CB Jeadyn Lukus who are both still on the Tigers roster. The Tar heels five stars were OT Zach Rice and DL Travis Shaw. Rice is still in Chapel Hill while Shaw is now a Texas Longhorn.
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For reference, the top rated player per 247 Composite in the FSU and Miami classes are now at G5 schools. That shows you how off the Miami and FSU high school evaluations have been at times.
In 2023, Miami’s class was ranked 7th in the nation with two five star prospects. Clemson came in 11th with 19 four stars, FSU was 20th again while Louisville came in 29th. Miami’s top two prospects were both OT’s in Francis Mauigoa and Samson Okunlola. Mauigoa is a two year starter while Okunlola has been a developmental prospect.
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247 had Tigers DL Vic Burley as a five star but not one on the composite rankings. FSU’s five star was WR Hykeem Williams. Burley has yet to record a sack for the Tigers and Williams has two total touchdowns for the ‘Noles.
Louisville’s top rated prospect was LB TJ Capers. Capers played in 11 games in ‘24 recording six tackles and an INT.
In 2024, Miami’s recruiting class was 4th in the country with three five star prospects signing on with the ‘Canes. Clemson came in 11th, FSU 12th and UNC was 26th. Miami’s composite five stars were DT Justin Scott, DL Armondo Blount, and DE Marquise Lightfoot. All three remain on the Hurricanes roster with only Scott having recorded a sack.
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Clemson’s two five stars were LB Sammy Brown and WR TJ Moore. Both are still with the Tigers as of this post. FSU’s top rated prospect was QB Luke Kromenhoek who is now a Mississippi State Bulldog. UNC’s highest rated prospect was Jordan Shipp who caught a touchdown as a true freshman.
That takes us to the 2025 high school signing class. The ACC was absolutely buried by the Power 2 conferences (SEC and Big Ten). Only Notre Dame got inside of the top-12 recruiting classes without being in the P2. Miami came in 13th with FSU at 19th, Georgia Tech at 21st and Clemson at 26th. The Tigers were the only program of the top four ACC classes to sign a composite five star.
Miami’s top rated prospect is edge rusher Hayden Lowe out of CA. FSU’s stud is DT Kevin Wynn who tips the scales at 340 pounds. GT’s best player is 247 five star Josh Petty, an OT from GA. While Clemson pulled 315 pound DL Amare Adams.
Miami’s biggest issue will be the lack of five-star prospects coming out of South Florida, the ‘Canes home recruiting area. As of this writing there is one single five-star in all of Florida, meanwhile the city of Baltimore alone has two of the 30 listed 247 Composite 5* prospects.
Transfer Recruiting
An entirely different world is transfer recruiting. Miami pulled in the 5th best transfer class per 247 in 2025. That includes QB Carson Beck. FSU came in 7th and UNC 12th.
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In ‘24, FSU hauled in the 7th best portal class while Miami signed the 10th best class and Louisville pulled no.15 in the nation. In 2023, FSU was 6th, Miami 7th and Louisville 12th.
I’m not sure if going back any further with transfer rankings is even worth the time as the amount of movement and the experience levels have been so drastic in the COVID year meet unlimited transfer era.
Blue Chip Ratio
If you take the HS recruiting numbers, Miami averages having the 10th best class in the country- and that’s with the 2022 class weighing down the mean. Miami’s transfer class would be 7th in the nation.
When it comes to Bud Elliott’s Blue Chip Ratio– only two ACC teams made the cut in 2024: Clemson and Miami. Clemson had a 64% BCR while Miami had a 61%. Florida State just missed the cut with a 49% BCR. Compared to the CFBPO National Champion Ohio State Buckeyes, and the ACC has a long way to go. OSU’s BCR was 90% last season.
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In Elliott’s estimation, only teams with a 50% or above BCR have a chance at winning the national title. The lowest BCR to win the title was the 2016 Clemson Tigers squad at 52%. Only two teams have managed a national title in the playoff era with a 50% BCR- the ‘16 Tigers and the 2023 Michigan Wolverines (54%).
OSU won their titles at 68% and 90%, the Georgia Bulldogs back-to-back titles were 80% and 77%, Bama’s three natties in the CFBPO Era were at 77%, 80%, and 83% (2020). That uber-talented 2019 LSU Tigers squad with Joe Burrow at QB- a 64% BCR.
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This all just proves that what SMU did in year three under Rhett Lashlee, year one in the ACC was quite remarkable. Miami’s BCR was 12th in the country in 2024 but the ‘Canes managed to drop games to two unranked teams and miss the ACC Championship Game and an at large bid into the CFBPO- talent be damned.
The Wrap
On paper Miami has the talent to make the ACC Championship Game and the 12-team CFB Playoff. The issue for the Hurricanes has been that this isn’t EA Sports College Football ‘26.
Miami will have to gel together with a new transfer quarterback, another transfer center, and an entirely new defensive backfield amongst other changes we’ll evaluate as the series moves on.
The talent is there, aggregately, the question is will it be developed and deployed properly and are these the ‘best’ players or just the most talented players?