The ACC is reeling and shifting their distribution model to keep the big schools happy. Does the conference play quality enough football to make a final four run in the college football playoff?
This is a three-part series of posts on The State of the ACC in 2025
In part one of the series, I brought up the football question: is it the Jimmy’s and Joe’s or X’s and O’s? We looked at 247 composite team recruiting rankings and the Blue Chip Ratio.
In part two of the series, we covered the NFL Draft and the development of prospects in the ACC compared to the top programs in CFB based on their Blue Chip Ratio numbers from Bud Elliott.
Now we’ll breakdown the product on the field on Saturdays. To do so I’ll use Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings to determine how well the talent has been deployed around the ACC and specifically at Miami.
Most coaches feel that scheme (Deployment) accounts for a max of 10% of the success rate in college football. That would include practice plans and styles, game day decision making, and the chosen playbooks ran by those teams.
In addition to Bill C’s SP+, we’ll also look at penalty yards per game as a ‘discipline’ metric on Saturdays.
2023 Deployment
The SP+
A strong comparison will be what Bill Connelly’s SP+ predicted pre-season versus what it figured out by the end of the same season. Before the ‘23 season, the SP+ predicted a top five finish of: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, and LSU (in order 1-5).
OSU was expected to have the best offense while Iowa was pre-season top-ranked defense. Clemson was the ACC’s top rated pre-season squad at 7th, FSU was 12th, UNC 25th, Pitt 36th, Miami 37th and Louisville 40th. Miami was expected to have the 49th ranked offense and 21st ranked defense.
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By the end of the ‘23 season the SP+ numbers had some shifts. The top-5 by season’s end (in order) was: Michigan, UGA, Oregon, OSU, and Penn State. Alabama fell to 7th and LSU to 11th. The top-rated offense was Oregon and the top-rated defense was Michigan. OSU’s offense slipped to 34th (SP+ fell off on this one) and Iowa’s defense 3rd (pretty darn good job from the SP+ there).
In the ACC- FSU finished 9th, Clemson 23rd, Miami 28th, Duke 30th, Louisville 34th, NCSU 39th and UNC 40th. Miami wound up with the 41st ranked offense and 40th ranked defense. Proof that Lance Guidry’s defense underperformed in 2023 and that he should’ve been replaced for ‘24.
Penalty yards per game
The Michigan Wolverines were an experienced, disciplined squad in ‘23 that had played in big games the season prior and relied on defense and ball control. Michigan finished 3rd in penalty yards per game over their championship run. Ohio State was 30th and UGA 31st. OSU cleaned this up for their run in 2024.
Oregon finished 122nd and Dan Lanning saw to it that would’ve be repeated in ‘24. The Hurricanes were 106th with 59.8 PYPG which only got worse the following season. For reference to ‘24, that put Miami above Biff Poggi’s Charlotte squad at the time.
As I’ll discuss regarding 2024, penalty yards don’t matter in clear blowouts of Miami over an FCS HBCU squad, but they certainly will come home to roost against the Georgia Tech’s of the world when every drive matters and false starts and personal fouls are drive killers or extenders in the wrong direction.
2024 Deployment
The SP+
The pre-season SP+ for ‘24 had the top-5 teams as follows: UGA, OSU, Oregon, Bama, and Texas. The SP+ predicted the top-rated offense would be Oregon and the top-rated defense would once again be the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Miami was the pre-season 19th ranked team in FBS, with the 16th offense and 34th defense. In the ACC- FSU was 12th, Clemson 16th, SMU 27th, NCSU 29th, Louisville 31st, Virginia Tech 36th, and UNC 40th.
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By season’s end, the SP+ had their top-5 as: OSU, Ole Miss, Oregon, Alabama, and Penn State. The top-offense nod went to the Miami Hurricanes while the top-defense was Ohio State. Oregon’s offense finished 2nd (much improved guess work over ‘23) and Iowa’s defense finished 5th (still on point).
In the ACC- Miami finished 10th with the no1. offense and 52nd defense. Clearly the data thought Guidry under delivered in both seasons. SMU was 12th, Louisville 21st, Clemson 22nd, Va. Tech 30th, and UNC 49th. You can see why UNC shoved Mack Brown out the door and why Clemson thought it was time to find a new defensive coordinator.
Penalty yards per game
Penalty yards per game is a great metric of team discipline. Mario Cristobal fancies himself a disciplined, physical, authoritarian and while he says cliches that would support this persona his on-field product fails to live up to his poster values.
Miami finished the ‘24 season 118th in PYPG. That is worse than Poggi’s Charlotte squad that saw the coach fired midseason and was a rag-tag group of portal transfers coached by a former high school coach (no offense to myself, but c’mon Mario).
While penalties won’t impact the score of an overmatched blowout (The 1991 Cotton Bowl comes to mind), they will play a huge role in close games. Ohio State finished the season 17th in PYPG, while Oregon finished 16th. Georgia Tech finished 23rd, and Clemson 45th. Rhett Lashlee’s SMU Mustangs were 132nd and their sloppy play was exposed against Clemson and Penn State.
SP+ Early Preseason
The SP+ early preseason typically comes out in February prior to spring practice and the spring portal period. Connelly will update this again in May after the spring portal, and in August prior to the Week Zero games.
The early data is based on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. The SP+ top-5 in February (in order) are: OSU, Alabama, Penn State, UGA, and Notre Dame.
In the ACC- Clemson is 11th, Miami 14th, SMU 18th, and Louisville 22nd. Miami has the early preseason top-rated offense and 49th ranked defense. I find the offensive numbers suspect without Cam Ward, Xavier Restrepo, and Damien Martinez but Carson Beck is a nice addition at QB with recent stats to prove himself worthy if his elbow is right.
On Miami’s schedule you have 5th ranked Notre Dame, 17th ranked Florida, and 51st ranked FSU. Clemson is the clear favorite to win the ACC as they return the bulk of their 2024 roster that won the conference last season.
The Texas Longhorns have the no.1 returning defense per SP+. Louisville, and Miami have to replace their QB’s, as does OSU, Alabama, UGA, ND, and FSU.
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The top returning QB’s are PSU’s Drew Allar, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, and Florida’s DJ Lagway should have an exciting ‘25 season if he stays healthy.
The Miami Hurricanes will need to see serious improvements in penalty yards per game if they want to win close games without Andres Borregales at placekicker, and Ward’s big play ability in the 4th quarter to support them in crunch time.
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Clearly OC Shannon Dawson has his group playing above their pre-season ranking every season but that’ll be hard to match in ‘25 as they have to repeat as the top ranked offense to do so. New DC Corey Hetherman comes from Minnesota to clean up the under achieving ‘Canes defense.
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Speaking of new coordinators: PSU has a new DC in OSU’s Jim Knowles, Clemson poached PSU’s Tom Allen as their new DC, Ryan Grubb is back with Kalen DeBoer– this time at Bama, OSU’s new OC is Brian Hartline with Chip Kelly to the NFL, Gus Malzahn is FSU’s new OC, and some how some way UGA decided to keep Mike Bobo on as OC for another season.
The Wrap
When it comes to overall deployment of an organization, Mario Cristobal still has a lot to prove as a head football coach. I trust Cristobal to build an offensive line more than anyone in the country but after that making sure he has the proper roster depth, development, and deployment is still a “jury is out” issue- and that’s after over a decade as a head coach.
Shannon Dawson clearly was the top OC in the ACC in 2024. Dawson and Ward put together the number one scoring offense in the country, as well as the most efficient group per the SP+ as well. I’m interested to see how he performs without Ward, Martinez picking up short yardage, and Restrepo making some insane catches.
DC Corey Hetherman has his work cut out for him. At the P4 level he’s only been a DC for one season. Hetherman is clearly behind a veteran like Tom Allen, the Clemson Tigers new DC hire. Hetherman has to prove he can coach, practice, drill, and teach tackling to a group that’s pieced together from the transfer portal and is on their 3rd DC in four years.
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And then there’s special teams and penalties. Those are also ‘head coach adjacent’ parts of the deployment puzzle. Miami is woefully undisciplined on the field and in key situations which makes matters worse. Jacolby George, a typical yellow flag recipient, is off to try his hand in the NFL. But it wasn’t just George making boneheaded decisions in big situations and Cristobal has to put his money where his mouth is on the ‘how you do one thing’ cliche.
Without Borregales I’m interested in seeing what the kicking coverage unit does. Miami went after a kickoff specialist to try to ensure touchbacks but when they were forced to cover it’s been a mess. Also the ‘Canes haven’t had a strong return unit on kicks or punts since Cristobal took over. Deployment has been an issue since Cristobal’s hiring and he’s on his 5th OC or DC in four years.