The ACC is reeling and shifting their distribution model to keep the big schools happy. Does the conference develop enough future pros to make a run to the CFBPO Championship Game?
This is a three-part series of posts on The State of the ACC in 2025
In part one of the series, I brought up the football question: is it the Jimmy’s and Joe’s or X’s and O’s? At the high school level, having enough Jimmy’s is good enough to win a state championship, development be damned.
At the college level, however, players have to be developed both on the practice field and in the weight room. As Urban Meyer famously said upon his hiring at OSU, ”(The strength coach is) the most important hire I made on this coaching staff.”
That hire was Mickey Marotti who now has four National Championship rings from two different programs (Florida Gators, Ohio State Buckeyes) and has worked with college football coaching legends at Notre Dame, OSU, Florida and West Virginia.
As you can see in the image above, development is somewhere in the 20-30% range for turning potential into reality. “Your potential is going to get me fired,” is a quote many coaches have used but one that is usually attributed to Air Raid Godfather and former Kentucky Wildcats head coach Hal Mumme.
Bruce Thorson-Imagn Images
The schools that are always on the potential doesn’t mean reality list are: Florida, Miami and Texas A&M. They’re joined lately by USC, Auburn, and Oklahoma. These are the Blue Chip Ratio teams that have the talent level to win but never turn that into actual victories. LSU could join that list soon under Brian Kelly, too.
As Miami fans found out in 2024, a damn good quarterback pickup in the transfer portal can change things for an offense. Oklahoma has acquired John Mateer while each of these programs is making some type of change. TAMU hired Tommy Moffitt, the long-time LSU strength coach with three championship rings and ties to Miami (1998-1999) and the Peyton Manning Era Tennessee Volunteers.
While Mike Elko and the Aggies focused on development, USC and Lincoln Riley have focused on talent acquisition instead. We’ll see which plan works out the best in 2025.
Development is hard to tell as the schools don’t release accurate information (see: Virginia Tech’s 40 times since the 90’s). You get the annual report of some player putting on 10 pounds (RB) or shedding 20 pounds (OL) of fat, the intensity of the off-season program and the strength coach being an animal (Aaron Feld), and of course- guys are flying around the Greentree practice fields.
If the speed is still there by the fall… https://t.co/mP2ocLKFSa
— Cam Underwood (@UnderwoodSports) April 5, 2025
With so much false data piling up on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List or message board rumors of 200-meter dash times, the best method I’ve come up with for development is comparing Blue Chip Ratios to NFL Draft picks totals. I don’t have a cute formula but the team with the highest BCR should have the highest number of draft picks come April.
The NFL Draft
With that being said, the teams with the most drafted players should be Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, Oregon, and Clemson. LSU, Oklahoma and Notre Dame should be up there as well. In the ACC, Clemson and Miami should lead the way in draft selections based on the BCR’s from 2022-2024.
2023-2024 Picks
Per Ourlads, UGA currently has 18 players on NFL rosters that were drafted in 2023 and 2024. Alabama has 20 players, TAMU has seven, Oregon hits the list with 13, LSU has 12, while Notre Dame has 10.
Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images
Clemson has a dozen players on NFL rosters right now selected in the ‘23 and ‘24 drafts. Miami currently has seven. The UNC Tar heels have six players that fit our filter, while Louisville also has seven players who qualify. These four programs have been the most talented per BCR over the past four seasons.
SMU on the other hand has one player in the NFL that fits our criteria, while Florida State has 11. Point proven that Miami and Texas A&M have been utter failures when it comes to turning four and five star high school prospects into NFL draft picks.
2025’s Prospects
What happens April 24-26 will truly tell us what the NFL thinks of Mario Cristobal’s ability to develop talent. QB Cam Ward will be a first round (possibly 1st overall) selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. After Ward, Miami is going to rely on TE Elijah Arroyo as their other top-100 draft prospect.
Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
When it comes to the top-100 players in the upcoming NFL Draft per NFLDraftBuzz and other ACC teams; Clemson, UNC and Louisville all have one player fit the mold. Clemson with LB Barrett Carter, UNC has RB Omarion Hampton, and Louisville has DE Ashton Gillotte. FSU, who fell just outside of the BCR of 50%, has only one top-100 prospect in the ‘25 NFL Draft.
When it comes to the P4 top Blue Chip programs, UGA has four top-100’s, LSU has four, TAMU has three, Bama has three, OSU has eight (and no.101 in Will Howard), Oregon has four, and ND has two. ACC runner-up SMU has ZERO top-100 prospects for the upcoming NFL Draft. SMU HC Rhett Lashlee truly turned chicken poop into chicken salad in ‘24.
The Wrap
The Mario Cristobal Era started off with a whimper. After a losing season he’s now managed to compile a 22-16 record while going .500 in the ACC at 12-12. His predecessor, Manny Diaz (now Duke HC), had a 21-15 record and 16-9 posting in the ACC. Diaz also produced eight drafted players over his three year run at Miami.
With the administrative and financial backing that Cristobal has at Miami there’s no excuse not to churn out another 10+ win season at Miami in ‘25. The team has the overall talent per the Blue Chip Ratio, the development has clearly been lacking under Cristobal when it comes to churning out NFL players.
Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images
But that’s always been a knock on Cristobal- he puts up the one big draftee (Justin Herbert, Penei Sewell, Kayvon Thibodeaux) and then a series of 7th round picks- including when he was the head coach at Oregon. Until Ward, Miami has failed to have a 1st round selection in two years under Cristobal.
The trust test comes in the 2026 NFL Draft where Cristobal’s first recruiting class will have played four seasons under him in Coral Gables. If Miami comes away with one 1st round pick (a 5th year QB on his 3rd school) in four seasons then it’s safe to say the development piece has been greatly lacking at The U. Hopefully for all involved Francis Mauigoa can turn into another 1st round OL for Cristobal and Alex Mirabal.