The Miami Hurricanes and Florida State Seminoles will renew their annual rivalry on October 4 in Tallahassee. And like every other year, it’s a must-have game and a litmus test for the season for the Hurricanes. And yes, it doesn’t matter if FSU is 2-10 or 10-2; it’s still the game that matters the most for Miami every year, including 2025.
Fortunately, the schedule sets up well for the Canes going into this game, as Miami will already have been battle tested twice at home against Notre Dame and Florida. Also, the Canes will have a bye the week before and the week after the game against Florida State, so the Canes can get fully rested and have an extra week to prepare. Meanwhile, the Noles have a Friday night game on 9/26 at Virginia, so a slight advantage to Miami there.
So, what are the Canes going up against this year when they walk into Doak Campbell Stadium on 10/4? Surely a better version than the 2-10 one that Miami rolled 36-14 at Hard Rock Stadium last year…. right? (Bueller?)
FSU offense vs. Miami defense
Florida State will already be significantly better at the most important position on the field, having secured former Boston College QB Thomas Castellanos in the transfer portal. Castellanos is someone who can make plays with his arm, but he’s a slippery player who ran 14 times for 73 yards against Florida State’s defense last year in a 28-13 BC win in Tallahassee. He also threw for 106 yards and 2 scores. He’ll be a clear upgrade over the DJ Uiagalelei and Luke Kromenhoek fiasco of 2024, but…
….who’s going to catch the ball for them? And block? As our Justin Dottavio noted, FSU is replacing 4 OL starters and doesn’t have the caliber of playmaker that they’ve had in years past, to put it nicely. They don’t have much continuity either, as 8 of their projected 11 starters are incoming transfers, which can take time to gel. And they’re replacing both coordinators. I can see more growing pains coming in Tallahassee.
Miami’s defense, meanwhile, also brought in new coaches (new DC Corey Hetherman, S Will Harris, and CB Zach Etheridge), but as truly heinous as Miami’s defense was last year, particularly on the back end, I have a hard time seeing this as anything but a big shot in the arm. Add Xavier Lucas, Zechariah Poyser, and others into the unit, and Miami’s biggest problem area appears set to take a big step forward in 2025. I like where Miami stands on this side of the ball far better than I did 6 months ago, and the Canes should be better equipped than when the season ended to handle FSU’s offense
Miami offense vs. FSU defense
I feel like FSU always has dudes on their defense, and they did enough last year to give the Hurricanes’ offense a bit of a challenge for most of the game last year before Miami turned it into a laugher in the fourth quarter. But I’m not sure what to expect with this group with a new DC and four or five new potential starters across all three levels of the defense via the portal. Former Cane Darrell Jackson, Jr. is back and should serve with former Nebraska DL James Williams as a nice duo up front. They have three returning on the back end in K.J. Kirkland, Shyheim Brown, and Earl Little, Jr., so there’s some continuity and experience there.
But I still like Miami here with their big and physical offense line to control the game up front and knock open holes with grinding drives. We still don’t know what the passing game will be like, but when you’ve got a good offensive line with a lead-pipe lock first round pick at tackle, that’s not an insignificant edge.
Way-too-early game prediction: Miami 30, FSU 19
It will be another grinder, as the Noles continue to hang around with Castellanos being enough of a handful to move the ball and sustain some drives. However, the Canes wear down FSU in the fourth quarter and put the game out of reach late in a tough road win that Miami fans will not complain about.