Mark Richt, Manny Diaz, and Mario Cristobal all have had one impressive season in Coral Gables. Is that just par for the course or has Cristobal shown any growth in the program?
The Miami Hurricanes are awaiting their fate from the College Football Playoff Committee and it doesn’t look good for The U. Many projections are putting the ‘Canes in the Pop-Tats Bowl in Orlando, FL.
Playing in Camping World Stadium in a meaningless bowl game is a far cry from where the Hurricanes were when I wrote, “Another potential 4-0 start for Hurricanes deja vu or coincidence.”
When Mario Cristobal left the Oregon Ducks and inherited the Hurricanes from Manny Diaz (head coach, Duke Blue Devils) the ‘Canes were a seven win per season team over three years.
For as undisciplined as we thought Coach Diaz’s teams were, they’re slightly worse under Coach Cristobal. Cristobal also hasn’t had the turnover margin that Manny put together in three of four seasons, or the defensive success of Diaz. Cristobal has, however, put together the best offense in FBS in 2024 via Cam Ward at quarterback.
What about Mario at Oregon vs. Mario at Miami? Is Oregon just a better place to coach? I’m not entirely sure about that. Cristobal has his friends in the Phil Knight position. Cristobal was less penalized and had a better turnover margin in Eugene than he does in Coral Gables.
The defenses were better at Oregon in a 4-2-5 under Andy Avalos than in the 3-4 under Jim Leavitt (2018) and Tim DeRuyter (2021). Joe Moorhead (2020-2021) and Marcus Arroyo *(2018-2019) managed better average SP+ offenses than Shannon Dawson and Josh Gattis have for Mario.
On average, Mario Cristobal has done less with more than any of the three coaches of the past decade. Mark Richt averaged 8.7 wins per season with 4.3 losses per year- making him the best coach of the three.
Richt also produced the most NFL talent (Mario Cristobal still awaits this draft class which should feature Elijah Arroyo, Jalen Rivers, Damien Martinez, Simeon Barrow, Cam Ward, Mishael Powell and Xavier Restrepo all being drafted).
Richt had done so with the least amount of blue chips and lowest recruiting ranking per 247 composite,
Analyzing their best seasons in orange and green is another task to compare Cristobal, Diaz, and Richt. Mark Richt’s 2017 team, which lost it’s final three games, finished 18th in Overall SP+. Richt’s best squad had much better penalty and turnover margin rankings than either Manny’s or Mario’s best teams.
However, Mario as of right now has the highest SP+ overall ranked squad in 2024. The ‘Canes still have one game to go (assuming they’re left out of the playoff and are in a bowl game as projected), but more than likely they’ll finish above 18th or 20th in SP+.
The Wrap
So which of the past three coaches had the best program structure? Mario Cristobal has the money and recruiting edge, but Mark Richt had the on field wins and NFL Draft picks- as well as the more disciplined teams on average compared to Diaz and Cristobal.
Cristobal managed another potential first round draft pick quarterback, this time it is Cam Ward instead of Justin Herbert. Will the Hurricanes return to being the cream of the NFL Draft’s first round crop?
The jury is out on Cristobal as he finishes year three at Miami. If the program regresses next season without Cam Ward and with a more difficult schedule (Florida, Notre Dame, Louisville while traveling to Pitt, SMU and Virginia Tech) I think the final verdict is the ceiling was a 10-2 season without a trip to the ACC Championship Game or the CFB Playoff.