What determines a win or loss outside of the final score? Find out by using losses from the past two seasons of Miami football and some historical games as well.
Over time I’ve tried to predict the data points that determine a football victory or loss and how those can be weighted when looking at a box score. If someone offered me a blind box score of past Miami Hurricanes football games- can I ‘guess’ the winner without knowing the opponent or even the season.
Having looked into every regular season loss of the past two seasons, and a couple of “historical games” for Miami- I’ve concluded that these are the key data points that determine wins and losses (besides the points, duh).
MD% or Money Down %: 3rd and 4th down conversion rates typically indicate success on both sides of the ball.
Turnover Margin: Turnovers determine outcomes. Any defensive scores add a higher weight to turnovers. But you can dominate 3rd down and still lose if you throw four INT’s. Just ask Jimmy Johnson in the 1987 Fiesta Bowl.
Missed Kicks: PAT’s and FG’s made are worth less than kicks that are missed. Especially if you’re kicking a pointless FG vs. Syracuse late in the game.
Kicking Game explosive plays: These include KR and PR touchdowns or big returns, blocked kicks, and shanked punts.
Penalty yards: In close games (single-digit finals) penalty yards matter more than in clear outcomes (10+ points).
2024 Season
Ga. Tech 28 vs. Miami 23
Money Down % (MD%): Miami 4-of-14 vs. GT 9-of-14
Turnovers: Miami 1 vs. GT 0
Missed Kicks: None.
KG Explosives: None.
Penalty Yards: Miami 35 vs. GT 29
Final: Cam Ward fumbled away a chance at a comeback victory and GT dominated the ground game and time of possession to upset Miami for the second straight year.
Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Syracuse 42 vs. Miami 38
Money Down % (MD%): Miami 6-of-11 vs. SU 7-of-11
Turnovers: Miami 1 vs. SU 1 (‘Cuse gets the nod for the defensive TD)
Missed Kicks: None.
KG Explosives: None.
Penalty Yards: Miami 90 vs. SU 36
Final: The game came down to the Xavier Restrepo fumble returned for a TD and Cristobal settling for a field goal in the 4th quarter. Turnovers and coaching blunders sealed the 2024 season’s fate.
2023 Season
Ga. Tech 23 vs. Miami 20
Money Down % (MD%): Miami 8-of-17 vs. GT 5-of-13
Turnovers: Miami 5 vs. GT 2
Missed Kicks: None.
KG Explosives: None.
Penalty Yards: Miami 80 vs. GT 67
Final: As we all know, Mario Cristobal’s coaching blunder was the determining factor in the loss. But Miami’s five turnovers to GT’s two (Don Chaney’s fumble when Cristobal should’ve kneeled the game out being one turnover) clearly didn’t help the cause. Miami lost the turnovers and penalty yards and won the MD%.
UNC 41 vs. Miami 31
MD%: Miami 6-of-15 vs. UNC 6-of-16
Turnovers: Miami 4 vs. UNC 0
Missed Kicks: None.
KG Explosives: None.
Penalty Yards: Miami 69 vs. UNC 147
Final: Clearly Miami lost the turnover battle and with all other data points being even the two INT’s and two fumbles negated the penalty yardage UNC was flagged for.
Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
NC State 20 vs. Miami 6
MD%: Miami 4-of-17 vs. NCSU 3-of-11
Turnovers: Miami 4 vs. NCSU 2
Missed Kicks: Miami 1 FG vs. NCSU None.
KG Explosives: None.
Penalty Yards: Miami 55 vs. NCSU 48
Final: Both teams lost the MD%, but once again Miami lost the turnover game. The ‘Canes also squandered a drive by missing a field goal and lost the penalty yards by a slim margin.
FSU 27 vs. Miami 20
MD%: Miami 5-of-18 vs. FSU 3-of-12
Turnovers: Miami 1 vs. FSU 0
Missed Kicks: Miami 1 FG vs. FSU None.
KG Explosives: Keon Coleman 57-yard punt return.
Penalty Yards: Miami 40 vs. FSU 35
Final: How do you lose a close game? A huge special teams play from Coleman wound up being the difference prior to Emory Williams injury and Tyler Van Dyke’s INT.
Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Louisville 38 vs. Miami 31
MD%: Miami 7-of-16 vs. UL 6-of-13
Turnovers: Miami 0 vs. UL 1
Missed Kicks: Miami 0 FG vs. UL 1.
KG Explosives: 50-yard kick return from Maurice Turner.
Penalty Yards: Miami 50 vs. UL 50
Final: Sometimes games are even, and one team should actually lose (Louisville) but it comes down to who has the ball last. Much like FSU, a kick return setting up a TD was the deciding factor against Cristobal.
Random games from UM history
I chose four random games that I could still find a box score for in Miami history that were losses. In 2020, Manny Diaz was smoked by UNC, in 2017 Mark Richt choked away a shot at the College Football Playoff (only to lose to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game anyway).
In 2003 the cracks were showing in Larry Coker’s tenure in a loss to Tennessee, and in the 1995 Orange Bowl Dennis Erickson ended his Miami Hurricanes tenure with a second half meltdown against Tom Osborne’s Nebraska Cornhuskers.
2020: UNC 62 – Miami 26
MD%: Miami 4-of-13 vs. UNC 8-of-13
Turnovers: Miami 1 vs. UNC 0
Missed Kicks: Miami 0 vs. UNC 1
KG Explosives: None.
Penalty Yards: Miami 68 vs. UNC 50
Final: Miami lost almost every battle against UNC- money downs, turnovers, and penalty yards. UNC did miss a kick but in a 30 point victory three points is negligible. A total annihilation of Manny Diaz and Blake Baker as defensive coaches by Mack Brown’s Tar Heels.
2017: Pitt 24 – Miami 14
MD%: Miami 4-of-15 vs. Pitt 9-of-18
Turnovers: Miami 1 vs. Pitt 2
Missed Kicks: None.
KG Explosives: Pitt 30-yard KR from Quadree Henderson.
Penalty Yards: Miami 52 vs. Pitt 54
Final: Miami punted 10 times against Pitt on the road as the no.2 team in the country. Pitt dominated 3rd down on offense and defense. Two future NFL RB’s in Travis Homer and Deejay Dallas were held under 2-yards per carry by the Panthers defense.
2003: Tennessee 10 – Miami 6
MD%: Miami 8-of-14 vs. UT 6-of-16
Turnovers: Miami 2 vs. UT 0
Missed Kicks: Miami 0 vs. UT 1
KG Explosives: None.
Penalty Yards: Miami 121 vs. UT 60
Final: This was a game that hurt. I was in college watching this alone in my apartment after a practice and thought WTF are they doing?! Brock Berlin threw two picks and Miami was undisciplined with double the penalty yardage.
1995: Nebraska 24 – Miami 17
MD%: Miami 3-of-14 vs. NU 4-of-12
Turnovers: Miami 1 vs. NU 3 (And a safety for Neb. vs. Miami)
Missed Kicks: None.
KG Explosives: None.
Penalty Yards: Miami 92 vs. NU 20
Final: Nebraska actually turned the ball over more than Miami on paper, but the safety sack of Frank Costa is a turnover in itself. Add that to quadruple the penalty yards called vs. Miami and that’s how you blow a close game in the second half.
The Wrap
Turnovers are a huge determining factor in success for football teams. Giving away possessions helps no team find success unless you can heavily outweigh the other categories. Ie. Turn the ball over two more times than your opponent but they squander their opportunities with penalties and missed kicks.
Which data point do you find the most important KPI for success?