Happy Monday, errrrrrrybody.
Hope your June has gone well, as we now sit right at two months from the first weekend of college football. It’ll be here before we know it.
Although we’re in the dead period of Miami sports outside of ‘crootin, I saw an article recently that got my wheels turning about 2025. CBS Sports’ Chip Patterson put up a post evaluating the best and worst case scenarios for each ACC team, and Miami’s were worth discussing. Let’s take a look at those, and get into my thoughts.
1) Patterson sees a ceiling of 11-1 and floor of 8-4 for the Canes in 2025.
This is what he had to say:
Best case 11-1: Carson Beck returns to full health and assumes the NFL-ready form he displayed before the injury in a quarterback-friendly offense that helped propel Cam Ward to the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. New coordinator Corey Heatherman helps Miami’s defense limit explosive plays and the Hurricanes make their first-ever appearance in the CFP.
Worst case 8-4: The Hurricanes not only fail to capitalize on the big moments against Notre Dame and SMU, but drop a couple more games to leave Miami feeling wholly unsatisfied given the level of talent on this roster. It speaks to the recruiting efforts of this staff that 8-4 is a floor projection, but for a program that has not hit its ceiling in a while Miami is much more focused on maximizing what it’s got in house.
2) I honestly think those marks are fair and reasonable. Mostly.
Although I think 10-2 is probably the more likely ceiling, getting a number of things to go their way creates a potential pathway to 11-1. But that involves roster talent and the schedule. I’ll get into both separately.
3) On the roster, answering some of those question marks in the affirmative is essential.
Who’s going to succeed X, Jacolby, Horton, and Arroyo as impactful pass catchers on this team? Is Jojo Trader going to realize the immense talent he has with a wide-open opportunity?
I’m honestly not worried about Beck as far as being able to step in and perform. I think he’s among the most talented QBs in the country and should be able to operate Shannon Dawson’s offense effectively. It’s just kind of a question similar to Georgia last year – can his pass catchers not let him down?
Defensively, I think there’s good young potential to replace their losses in the front seven, but the back end will continue to worry me until it proves to me on the field that I can breathe again when an opposing QB throws the ball deep down the field. I’m wounded from last year – what can I say?
At least there’s a lot of talent and new minds back there this year, with Corey Hetherman, Zach Etheridge, and Will Harris there to run the show. Transfers Xavier Lucas, Zechariah Poyser, and Jakobe Thomas should all be in a position to make the starting group significantly better this year.
So, if those roster areas can provide some pleasant surprises and hit the ground running to start the year, a strong season is not out of the realm of possibility.
4) And the schedule is going to provide some substantial challenges.
Notre Dame and Florida at home are massive contests, and Miami needs to at least split them to have a shot at 10-2, and probably sweep to get to 11-1.
They have some tricky home games against Syracuse and Louisville, teams they’ve struggled with and/or lost two over the last two seasons. Those games won’t be easy even though they both lost QBs to the NFL Draft back in April.
November road games against SMU, Va Tech, and Pittsburgh are not going to be cakewalks, to put it mildly. The Ponies and their head coach Rhett Lashlee obviously know Miami extremely well, and the Hokies and Panthers are the final two games of the season in what will be frigid temperatures. Not easy.
As such, the schedule is going to have more potential potholes than last season, and Miami will have to find a way to navigate it. Getting through that part will depend largely on how well they answer the questions above in #3.
My feeling is this is a 10-2/9-3 type of team. But a game one way or another wouldn’t be surprising. Ergo, why I think Patterson has given a fair range.
Go Canes!