The Gators head to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Hurricanes in what could be a battle of undefeated teams already with marquee wins or a game to resurrect the young season. Which star QB will come out on top?
The Florida Gators finished the 2024 season on a four game heater that included wins over ranked teams in LSU and Ole Miss as well as a rivalry week victory over Florida State.
The Gators wrapped up the year with a record of 8-5 and a win in the Gasparilla Bowl. Over three seasons in Gainesville, FL, Billy Napier has a record of 19-19 and an SEC record of 10-14. Florida had the composite 7th best class in FBS, which is good for 4th in the SEC. The class was led by WR Vernell Brown III who needs to make an immediate impact in Gainesville in ‘25.
The Gators 2025 schedule is another Murderer’s Row with seven ranked opponents (four on the road) and the annual showdown against FSU. Florida’s Preseason Overall SP+ is 14th in FBS while their ST’s are 8th.
The Lean ‘Canes Business Model
Problem: A year ago the Gators needed the stability of a quarterback. Graham Mertz was a solid transitional champion quarterback until DJ Lagway was ready. But that meant getting blown out by Miami and beat up by Texas A&M.
Solution: DJ Lagway is the QB. The defense seems repaired after voting Austin Armstrong off the island and replacing him with a half dozen “co-DC’s.” Now it’s time for the offense to have a star player again.
Unique Value Proposition: Florida has won a National Championship under two different head coaches three different times. They’ve also produced three Heisman Trophy winners (all quarterbacks) and play in The Swamp. Could Lagway become their 4th Heisman QB?
Key Metric: Lagway’s QBR is going to be the KPI I’d look for from UF. If he’s a star the Gators might climb to 10 wins. If he’s just good, they’re a 7-8 win team again.
Competitive Advantage: I’ll say one thing the Gators have really cornered the market on is building a team of high school recruits. They’ve portal dabbled to fill holes but they’re really a program, not a team. We’ll see if that stability bumps them from eight wins to 10 in ‘25.
The Achievers
The High Achievers don’t typically get blown out four times in a season. If you’re going to lose, lose in a close game for the CFB Playoff committee voters to see some promise in you.
The Low Achievers lose their top players to the transfer portal. Florida has kept most of who they actually want from entering the portal. Not a ton of huge losses that way for the Gators outside of one or two over the past three years.
The Offense
The preseason SP+ for UF on offense is 16th in all of FBS. That puts UF in the running for a pretty good season on offense in a stacked conference like the SEC.
Florida returns the QB, Lagway, who averaged 10 yards per pass attempt as a freshman. He threw a few too many INT’s (nine), but he’s got more boom for his bust compared to Mertz. RB Jordan Baugh returns after averaging over five yards per carry with seven TD’s last season.
The Gators went after a WR in J. Michael Sturdivant who averaged 14.2 yards per catch a year ago. UF also added a backup QB in Harrison Bailey.
The Film: Florida 31 at Florida State 11
Florida allowed FSU to hit 50% on money downs (3rd and 4th) but recovered five fumbles on eight forced against the hapless ‘Noles. UF was called for seven penalties while FSU went unflagged in the rivalry game.
Above– This has a lot of what I like to see in a concept. Motion for messing up the defense’s rotation and OODA Loop, an RPO tag with a post-snap read, and split zone as the concept.
Above– Six in the box and leverage feels like a pull and throw read to me. Not sure what the QB saw here maybe he thought no3 could cover the ground in time? CB was too pressed up? Not sure.
Above– I love split zone. The FSU contain guy shows his chest and the Florida TE pops him. UF’s TE keeps his head inside, which cuts off the defender from making a play here.
Above– Miami is going to have to tackle better in ‘25. You can see the FSU defender come across the RB’s face, over running the play. Then he drops to a knee and it’s over for him.
The Defense
The defensive preseason SP+ for the Gators is 21st in the country. Florida was an abysmal 69th in Napier’s first season in Gainesville.
DL Tyreak Sapp returns to the Gators after a 13 TFL and seven sack season in ‘24. George Gumbs Jr. also returns after logging eight TFL’s and five sacks last year. Jordan Castell returns on the back end after nine PBU’s a year ago.
UF only went after a pair of defenders in the transfer portal this off-season. They added a starter quality player in Michael Caraway Jr. (DB) and a reserve in hybrid player Kofi Asare.
Above– Sapp and Markel Bell will have a heck of a game in front of each other if that’s how Florida wants to play it. I’m penciling Bell in as the LT for the UF game. Right now FSU could chip the DE with the off line TE but they choose not to.
Above– The LT’s right leg is a little wide and the DE has his hands inside and in control. The LT really wants that right leg met at the DE’s crotch which would eliminate the outside rush while not giving up the inside too much.
Above– The DE commits wide and the LT is left lunging after him. The QB needs to feel this and step up into the pocket so that’s on him too. When the LT opened up that wide QB’s can’t drift back, they have to step up into the pocket to cut the rusher off.
Above– A strip sack for UF in a blowout over FSU. Always whack at the QB’s forearm on his passing hand.
2025 Prediction
Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images for ONIT
The Canyonero Keys to Victory for the ‘Canes this season over UF is to out gun the Gator. DJ Lagway is getting a ton of hype and Florida returns most of their two deep. Napier went with building through the high school ranks over the transfer portal and while it’s been a rocky road so far he might be on to something huge in ‘25.
So Miami is going to have to sling the ball to beat Florida and put up points. The UF offense and defense have crawled from pathetic to a respective top-25 in SP+ in both categories.
Way too early prediction: Miami by 3. UF will finish 9-4 and come out on the other end of another brutal schedule with a winning record. However, I think Miami gets the Gator at home at Hard Rock in front of a loud home crowd.
With the SP+’s 2nd ranked strength of schedule, Napier’s job is more than safe after another 8-win season, but I still think they can get to nine before a bowl.