The FSU Seminoles will get the Miami Hurricanes at home this year. Miami will head to Tallahassee after an off week and before another strangely placed off week.
The Florida State Seminoles are coming off a 2-10 season (1-7 in the ACC) that has head coach Mike Norvell on the hottest of hot seats.
At FSU, Norvell has coached three losing seasons in five years on his way to a 33-27 record and 20-20 posting in the ACC. FSU has played in two bowl games under Norvell finishing 1-1 in post-season play. FSU had the 19th best class in FBS, which was good for 2nd in the ACC. The class was led by 340 pound DL Kevin Wynn.
FSU will play Alabama to open the season before three cupcakes and an off week prior to their rivalry showdown with Miami at Doak Campbell Stadium. The ‘Noles have to head to Clemson, NC State and Florida but host Virginia Tech in the middle of that run.
FSU’s Preseason Overall SP+ is 36th in FBS while their ST’s are 13th. If FSU is in the middle of the pack of the P5 I’m not sure if Norvell can keep his job.
The Lean ‘Canes Business Model
Problem: Continuity. FSU has been a wholesale transfer portal team under Norvell and the sticking power they had in ‘23 has faded to a revolving door of portalers in ‘24 and now again for ‘25.
Solution: They didn’t solve the problem. FSU replaced their QB, OC, DC, and will have around 15 transfers in the two-deep this season.
Unique Value Proposition: FSU has won a national championship semi-recently, but in reality anything in the BCS Era is no longer ‘modern football.’ FSU does have three national titles under two different coaches and three Heisman Trophy winners.
Key Metric: Turnover margin per game. FSU suffered through a -1.6 turnover margin in 2024. That made them the 132nd ranked FBS team in TOM/Game.
Competitive Advantage: I do think the FSU defense has talent on it. Running a 3-3-5 with Jackson Jr. at NT can be nasty and they have a solid defensive backfield.
The Achievers
The High Achievers in the ACC are Clemson, Miami and SMU. Clemson has avoided the portal like the plague while Miami and SMU have used it much more fluidly. Clemson and Miami are attempting to upgrade at DC this season and so is FSU.
The Low Achievers in the ACC lose talent to the portal and coaches to better jobs. One thing FSU doesn’t share with that is losing their AC’s to something better, they’ve just been fired and have taken lesser gigs.
The Offense
The preseason SP+ for FSU on offense is 58th in all of FBS. FSU’s offense has almost no returning players nor firepower from the ‘24 season where they scored only 15.4 points per game (131st in FBS).
Roydell Williams has talent but the former Alabama transfer was injured and unproductive a year ago.
FSU picked up four new OL for the two deep, WR Duce Robinson and QB Thomas Castellanos to try to get back to at last the ‘Noles 2022 form. Robinson averaged over 17 yards per catch with five TD’s in ‘24.
Castellanos is a curious decision at QB. He kind of quit on Boston College after throwing 18 TD’s with five INT’s. Castellanos is an undersized but explosive runner who takes too many sacks. I think this is an upgrade over ‘24 starter DJ Uiagalelei.
The Film: FSU 14 vs. Cal 9
FSU pulled off an upset with their 14-9 win over the Cal Golden Bears. The difference maker was FSU holding Cal to five field goal attempts, and Cal only making three. The FSU offense was 8-of-19 on money downs and only turned the football over once.
Above– Norvell likes his counter trey stuff and here he’s pulling his guard and tackle against a 6-man box.
Above– The QB is reading the EMOL (end man on line). If he crashes down the Q will pull and run (next picture has the run fake action).
Above– I love a great kick out block from a guard on a counter run.
Above– What helps a nice run concept? Downfield blocking from the wide receivers.
The Defense
The defensive preseason SP+ for the ‘Noles is 28th in the country after allowing 28.0 PPG a year ago (87th in FBS). FSU returns Darrell Jackson Jr (3.5 TFL’s) and a ton of backups from the ‘24 season.
They do return DB’s Shyheim Brown and KJ Kirkland from last year’s defensive backfield. Brown is actually a returning Seminole for year five- a rarity in Tallahassee. Kirkland will return for his third season at FSU.
The ‘Noles hit the portal on defense, too. On the DL they brought in James Williams (five sacks) and unproven talent in DL Deante McCray and linebackers Stefon Thompson and Elijah Herring.
The Film: FSU 3 at ND 52.
Notre Dame thumped FSU in 2024 while the Fighting Irish held the ‘Noles to 4-of-19 on money downs (3rd and 4th) while turning the ball over two times. The FSU defense allowed 201 rushing yards and four TD’s on the ground to ND.
Above– ND lines up in a 2×2 set in the red zone and runs a pass concept called ‘slot fade.’ The outside WR runs a short hitch while the inside receiver works up and out over the numbers to replace the no1 receiver.
Above– As the slot beats his man to the back pylon, the CB has to commit to the outside WR. The FS is unable to get over the top to help in time. That’s why you throw this to the outside shoulder so it’s hard for the FS to get there.
Above– Wrong shoulder but nice and deep over the top of the slot and too far for the FS to help.
2025 Prediction
Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images
The Canyonero Keys to Victory for the ‘Canes this season over FSU is to avoid self-implosion. FSU is a .500 ball club at best even after replacing both coordinators and their quarterback.
Way too early prediction: Miami by 14. FSU will finish 5-7 and Mike Norvell will be out as the head coach of the ‘Noles. With the SP+’s 30th ranked strength of schedule there’s no excuse to not finish above .500 in a down ACC.