The Louisville Cardinals will head to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Hurricanes in ‘25. These two programs have had a pair of blockbuster matchups between Cards head coach Jeff Brohm and ‘Canes HC Mario Cristobal.
The Louisville Cardinals are coming off of another winning season where they finished 9-4 (5-3 in the ACC) and a win in the Sun Bowl. In two seasons under Jeff Brohm, the Cardinals are 19-8 including 12-4 in the ACC. Both seasons have ended with a bowl trip for the Cards.
Brohm is a true portal princess and it shows in their prep recruiting. From the high school signing day, Louisville is 16th in the ACC per 247 which is 58th in FBS. Edge rusher CJ May was the Cards top prospect in the ‘25 class. UofL had the 5th best transfer class in the ACC and hauled in 30 commits.
The Cards schedule is quite favorable early on to get 30 transfers on the same page this season. Louisville should start 3-0 before heading to Pitt for their first ACC game. After Pitt and UVA, the Cards get an off week before a road trip to Miami.
The final three games of the regular season are the really hard part. L’ville will host Clemson before a road trip to SMU and then their rivalry game against Kentucky at home.
The Cards Preseason Overall SP+ is 24th in FBS while their ST’s are 97th.
The Lean ‘Canes Business Model
Problem: Choking away a game to an unranked opponent is a major problem for Brohm over the past two years. It’s been Pitt and Stanford that have knocked off the Cards in back-to-back campaigns.
Solution: I don’t think they have solved the problem, because there’s no consistency to the roster. ~20 new faces on the two deep every off-season. That “oops” game is probably at Virginia Tech Nov. 1st.
Unique Value Proposition: Head coaches typically find success at Louisville. John L. Smith, Bobby Petrino (round one), Charlie Strong and Brohm have all hit double-digit win seasons at UofL. The only true flop since Smith’s tenure has been Steve Kragthorpe. The Cards also have a Heisman Trophy winner in that time period in QB Lamar Jackson.
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Key Metric: SP+ defense. The Cards need to have a little more equity between their top-15 offense and their defense. If the defensive SP+ can drop from the 40’s to the 20’s the Cards are a 10-win ball club in ‘25.
Competitive Advantage: The QB development and game planning of Jeff Brohm. Brohm’s brain has truly given the Cardinals a competitive advantage.
The Achievers
The High Achievers in the ACC are Clemson, Miami and SMU. What gives Louisville something different when compared to those three is that they’re more like SMU than Miami and Clemson as they’re coached by an offensive minded coach instead of a CEO type.
The Low Achievers in the ACC- Stanford, Wake Forest and UVA are boring teams that typically play bad defense. Louisville plays average P4 defense and are far from boring.
The Offense
The preseason SP+ for UofL on offense is 12th in all of FBS. Louisville will once again rely on a transfer portal QB to push them to a winning record. This time it’s Miller Moss the transfer QB from USC. Can Brohm work magic with a third straight ‘bust’ behind center?
Last season the Cards scored 36.5 PPG (9th in FBS) with Tyler Shough at QB. Brohm resurrected Shough’s career and the journeyman passer was selected in the 2nd round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Cards do return RB Isaac Brown and WR Chris Bell from a year ago. Brown rushed for 7.1 yards per carry and 11 TD’s while Bell averaged 17.1 yards per catch and four TD’s.
They’ll miss Ja’Corey Brooks (Washington Commanders) but have tried to replace him with two-time transfer WR Dacari Collins.
The Film: SMU 34 vs. Louisville 27
This was an even matchup outside of one Louisville turnover (SMU had zero TO’s) and an edge to SMU on 3rd and 4th down. The Mustangs finished 5-of-11 on money downs while the Cards were 6-of-16.
The Cards offense was explosive on the ground with Brown rushing for 11.7 yards per carry but held without a TD. Brooks averaged 40 yards per catch which was a very Lance Guidry defensive thing to allow as well.
Above– The Cards ran switch against SMU for a big gain, and the Stangs had poor communication and execution on the back-end, something Miami fans knew too well under Guidry.
What the diagram above is trying to say is that the Y has a three way go on his concept. If there’s 1-high safety in the middle of the field (closed) the Y will carry himself up the hashes. If there’s a 2-high safety look or middle of the field open the Y will carry up the goal post.
If the MOFC (middle of the field is closed) AND it’s man coverage, the Y can break off into a dig concept. The W in this concept typically replaces the Y up the numbers but can drop out if the defender gives him a huge cushion.
Above– SMU is trying to play a game here with their LB/S guys but it backfires.
Above– You have one defender staying shallow, one going deep, and the middle of the field is clogged with the shallow crosser and the WR running inside the hashes toward the goal post. This draws three defenders over two receivers.
Above– You can see help is way too far away and the deep CB got beat on the switch.
The Defense
The defensive preseason SP+ for the Cardinals is 45th in the country after allowing 24.1 PPG a year ago (56th in FBS). Ron English returns as the Cards DC for the ‘25 season. The Cards defense will miss DL Ashton Gillotte who went in the 3rd round to the KC Chiefs.
The defense returns LB’s Stanquan Clark and TJ Quinn as well as STAR Antonio Watts. That’s 19 TFL’s and seven PBU’s between the trio.
Transfer DB Jabari Mack had 11 PBU’s a year ago for Jacksonville State. Transfer safety JoJo Evans is on his 4th school as a collegiate fotballer but did log seven PBU’s and two INT’s last season.
The Film
SMU QB Kevin Jennings was a true dual threat but the Cards won’t have to worry about that with Carson Beck.
The red zone fade… I’m not a big fan of the concept UNLESS it’s on 1st down. Rhett Lashlee dials it up here and SMU scores with former Miami WR Keyshawn Smith making the catch. Who will be the jump ball guy for Miami in ‘25 with Isaiah Horton in Tuscaloosa?
Above– SMU has the run game going with Jennings and slightly with Brashard Smith (four yards per carry on the day). This draws any safety help into the box, along with the TE shifting into the ‘nested’ position inside the OT.
Above– The play-action freezes any chance at help for the L’ville CB. Now it’s a 1-on-1 ball for SMU’s offense.
Above– Instead of pushing to the back pylon like a typical fade, SMU uses a back shoulder drop out. Smith does a ‘throw by’ on the CB forcing him deep and then breaks off outside. If this ball is ‘missed’ it should be outside and out of bounds, not inside and picked or deep and shoved out or picked.
Miami has a half dozen slot receivers but do they have a true big body type that can execute this look in the red zone?
2025 Prediction
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The Canyonero Keys to Victory for the ‘Canes this season over Louisville is for Mario Cristobal and new Miami DC Corey Hetherman to prove they can match wits with Jeff and Brian Brohm. The two showdowns for Miami against Brohm have been blockbuster games. This is an experienced play caller in Brohm matched up against a second year P4 DC in Hetherman.
Way too early prediction: Miami by 1. Louisville will finish 9-3 but not with a win over the ‘Canes. Louisville has the 43rd toughest schedule per SP+ which only playing 3-4 tough opponents will help them get to nine wins.