The Miami Hurricanes are coming off of a disappointing end of the 2024 season. A three loss skid and another season without a trip to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game summed up the collapse.
The Miami Hurricanes finished the 2024 season with a record of 10-3 and missed out on the ACC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. Head coach Mario Cristobal now has a 22-16 overall record but a 12-12 record in the lowly ACC.
Under Cristobal, Miami has improved in their high school recruiting and they’ve hit on big transfer portal targets while not improving the quality of product on the field. Miami’s recruiting class finished 14th in FBS which was the top class in the ACC. Miami’s top prospect was CA edge rusher Hayden Lowe.
The Hurricanes lose the 1st overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft in QB Cam Ward, but add in UGA transfer QB Carson Beck to replace Ward.
The Hurricanes will face Notre Dame and Florida in the non-conference slate, and FSU, SMU, and Virginia Tech on the road while hosting Louisville as part of the ACC schedule. The ‘Canes are 12th overall in preseason SP+ per Bill Connelly, and 19th in kicking.
The Lean ‘Canes Business Model
Problem: Defense! The Hurricanes defense allowed 25.3 points per game which was good for 69th in FBS football. If Miami’s defense had a pulse the Hurricanes are 11-1 and in the 2024 ACC Championship Game.
Solution: Cristobal fired Lance Guidry and replaced him with Corey Hetherman, a Greg Schiano disciple with limited P5 play calling experience. The Hurricanes have also drastically overhauled the defensive back rooms while adding some fluff to the LB room as well.
Unique Value Proposition: Location in all ways. While the prep talent in South Florida is drying up and heading north to Central Florida and Georgia, the Hurricanes are still located in Coral Gables in the NIL era.
There is prep talent, it’s just mainly at the private schools (Chaminade, Heritage, STA), and college athletes can enjoy a beautiful private school like UM and the nightlife of SFLA while having cash to burn via NIL.
Key Metric: Unranked opponents. Mario Cristobal’s tenures at both Oregon and Miami have been marred by painful losses to unranked opponents. Miami has lost to 10 unranked teams under Cristobal in three seasons. Cristobal has to clean that up in order to get Miami over the ‘also ran’ hump in the ACC.
Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images
Competitive Advantage: Offensive Line play. The ‘Canes are lucky to be coached by Alex Mirabal and have a head coach that values spending money on the O-Line. Miami has a commitment from top-rated 2026 prospect OT Jackson Cantwell.
Miami hasn’t exactly produced top draft picks over three years under Cristobal. Alex Mirabal’s group has produced two draft picks: one in the 5th and one in the 7th round. But the OL play has improved under the Mario-Alex duo and Francis Mauigoa could change the fate of the ‘Canes OL in the ‘26 draft.
The Achievers
Miami is a high achiever, one thing they can do differently in the future is rely less on the portal for an overhaul and on it more for those key pieces like Clemson. Re. SMU, Miami can win their ACC games like the Mustangs did in ‘24 and avoid choking to unranked opponents in ‘25.
What to avoid from the low achievers? Don’t play boring offense like UVA with very limited imagination on the field after the Robert Anae Era ended. Another low achiever to avoid would be Stanford. Miami can’t let the S&C program fall apart like the Cardinal have since the end of the David Shaw era.
The Offense
The preseason SP+ no. 1 offense in the country will be tested early against Notre Dame. Miami has to replace their entire skill group minus Mark Fletcher, and also Jalen Rivers and Zach Carpenter from the OL.
Miami returns players with a ton of promise but who need to prove it on the field of play. Of course QB Carson Beck transferred in from UGA but he’s coming off of an elbow injury.
A-Gap Power
Since we already know about the scheme that Miami runs on offense, I’ll focus on a concept I wish that the ‘Canes would run. A-Gap Power is a play that CharMar Brown ran religiously at North Dakota State University as a member of the Bison.
The video above is 20+ minutes of NDSU running power and their offense should be a goal for Shannon Dawson, Cristobal and the Hurricanes.
Above– Illinois OL Coach Bart Miller teaches A-Gap Power in an online clinic on YouTube. you can check out his teaching of the play there.
The diagram of A-Gap Power above is from USA Football. As you can see the backside guard pulls and wraps to the second level. The FB above is also leading for a ‘super power’ but the TE is kicking out the DE.
Above- You can see the pre-snap look. The FB and RB are in the I-Formation and the TE is on the line of scrimmage as NDSU lines up in 21 personnel.
Above– You can see the FB kicking out the defensive end and the guard lead blocking to the second level while the RB follows the lead block from the FB.
The Defense
The ‘Canes defense is ranked 44th in preseason SP+. Miami returns Rueben Bain Jr., Akheem Mesidor, OJ Frederique and Wesley Bissainthe on the defense as players who started games or were major contributors in ‘24.
It’s transfers galore in the back five with Xavier Lucas, Zechariah Poyser and Charles Brantley coming in to replace a porous DB group from a year ago.
When it comes to Hetherman (Miami’s new DC), I am curious as to how he got Guidry’d by Michigan. Minnesota lost 27-24 to a team where you flat out knew the QB can’t throw the football in Alex Orji. Orji averaged 4.8 yards per throw against the Gophers, tossing one TD and one INT. And the Wolverines still put up 27 points!
Kalel Mullings ran for 111 yards on 4.6 yards per carry with two scores against Hetherman’s defense. Michigan finished 7-of-16 on 3rd and 4th down without being able to throw the football- kind of like the Haynes King game vs. Miami in ‘24.
The turnovers were even although not all are created equal. Michigan stripped a fumble and got the ball in the red zone. The penalty yards were relatively even and the only real blunder of the game was the missed FG from the Gophers.
Above– The Gophers blow their run fit. The LB plays the A-Gap which was taken up by the DT, and that leaves the B-Gap wide open. The S is playing middle field, not formation. In the “alley” of a 1-high run fit he’s toast.
Above– The S takes a horrible angle. I’m not sure what dude is diving about I guess his square button jammed and he dove a little late.
Above– An excellent view of how to get gashed. 2nd level defender doubles up the gap with the 1st level and 3rd level is 1-high and doesn’t work to the run action until it’s too late.
Above– The tracking has been bad so far, the tackling possibly worse. Gopher leaves his feet and you’re not taking Mullins or Donovan Edwards down with that arm tackling from your knees.
Above– Now this run fit is fantastic. An overhang getting leverage outside, a LB playing inside-out.
Above– Big time kick out vs a soft Gophers defense. They really got pounded like GT vs Miami or UNC vs Miami.
Above– A split zone kickout punishes Minny again. Then a series of missed tackles creates a 1st down for Michigan.
So how do you lose to a Michigan team, while allowing 27-points to them, when you know they can’t throw the football? Blow run fits, miss tackles, and take bad angles and rotations.
2025 Prediction
Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
The Canyonero Keys to Victory for the ‘Canes this season will be Cristobal overcoming Cristobal. Miami didn’t ‘get beat’ last season, the ‘Canes beat themselves. Against Georgia Tech it was finishing 4-of-14 on 3rd and 4th downs on offense and allowing 9-of-14 on defense.
Against Syracuse Miami suffered an epic meltdown squandering a 21-0 lead, choosing to kick a FG and play defense late in the game, a costly penalty and allowing the Orange defense to score on a fumble return.
Way too early prediction: 9-3 and I would like to think even at that record (losses to someone like Notre Dame wouldn’t hurt Miami’s ACCCG chances) the ‘Canes will return to Charlotte for the first time since the 2017 season. Miami’s strength of schedule per the SP+ is 36th in FBS.
Miami has yet to win the ACC in two decades of play. This is the season where Miami has to get past the unranked road blocks and avoid any self-implosions on the way to the CFB Playoff or the season is a bust once again.