SMU walked into the ACC and had an undefeated conference slate before losing the ACC Championship Game to Clemson on a field goal. The Mustangs are a top-three ACC program heading into year two in conference play.
The SMU Mustangs finished the 2024 season, their first in the ACC, with an 11-3 record and a trip to both the ACC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee is 29-12 in three seasons at SMU, with an 8-0 record in the ACC and a 21-3 conference record overall (previously SMU was in the AAC).
The Mustangs 2025 schedule is well timed for them with Baylor sandwiched between cupcakes, and a trip to TCU followed by an off week. The ‘Stangs do travel to Clemson but sandwiched between easy wins. SMU hosts Miami and Louisville- with the latter coming after of an off week.
SMU’s 2025 prep recruiting class was 34th in FBS, which put them at 6th in the ACC. The Mustang transfer class was ranked 41st. The top prep prospects Lashlee signed this off-season were IMG QB Ty Hawkins and WR Jalen Cooper (TX).
The Mustangs Preseason Overall SP+ is 20th in FBS, making them a top-three program in the ACC heading into year two in the league. The SMU ST’s are 40th per SP+.
The Lean ‘Canes Business Model
Problem: Do the Mustangs have a problem? They walked into the ACC and finished 8-0 in the regular season before losing a close ACC Championship Game to perennial top dawg the Clemson Tigers. One issue for SMU has been their reliance on the transfer portal, especially from Miami.
Solution: Lashlee cut down on his transfers, especially on offense, for the ‘25 campaign. While SMU lost a ton of production from the ‘24 group on both sides they will use more homegrown talent in the starting line-up this season.
Unique Value Proposition: They’re the only Texas school in the ACC. In a conference that once made sense and no longer does, they’re a good type of outlier compared to Cal and Stanford.
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Key Metric: Tackles for loss. SMU lost their top four players in TFL’s, one of the most important defensive statistics. If they can replace those big plays they’ll find success in ‘25.
Competitive Advantage: It’s the NIL era and SMU has a ton of oil money in a financially strapped ACC. If being the rich school that wants to win at football ain’t unique in the league I dunno what is.
The Achievers
The High Achievers include the SMU Mustangs. Lashlee did a great job of building the roster into a Middle 2 (Big 12 and ACC) competitor for year one of ACC play. Would SMU finish undefeated in the Big Ten or SEC? Sorry, but no. They’re starting to shift more into a Clemson than a Miami regarding using the transfer portal as SMU throttled down on the portal heading into ‘25.
The Low Achievers are a group I don’t worry about SMU encroaching upon. Lashlee will always play a fun brand of football. He likes trick plays, a high scoring offense, and doing things like kicking onside kicks or faking punts. I have faith he’ll keep it fun while he’s at SMU.
The Offense
The preseason SP+ for SMU on offense is 11th in all of FBS. With Jennings at QB as a boom or bust player- SMU scored 36.5 PPG in ‘24 (8th in FBS). Jennings put up 28 touchdowns a year ago on 11 INT’s while not even beginning the season as the starting QB. He’ll have to get used to life without RB Brashard Smith (18 TD’s from scrimmage) and WR Keyshawn Smith (16 yards per catch, five TD’s).
TE RJ Maryland and WR Jordan Hudson return as weapons from the ‘24 campaign. Maryland was out injured for half of the season and still scored four TD’s.
Lashlee is looking to rely on his homegrown talent more than portal on offense this season. SMU only added around five portal players to the offensive two-deep this year.
The Film: Clemson 34 – SMU 31
Penalties and turnovers were the difference makers in the 2024 ACC Championship Game. SMU was flagged for 65-yards in penalties vs. Clemsons ZERO yards in flags. SMU also turned the ball over twice, both from Jennings. The Tigers did not turn the ball over in their victory. Money downs, sacks, PBU’s, TFL’s, and missed FG’s were all even.
Above– Eight of 11 defenders are lined up weak-A over to the field. That leaves three (and one is 15y off the ball) to the weak side after one down block.
Above– Lashlee dials up a well timed counter with the TE lead blocking on the wrap. If the TE makes his play, and the FS and CB are blocked- it’s a home run.
Above– You can see the wrap cut off the defender and the CB is blocked on the perimeter. The blocks are well read on the play.
Above– The downfield blocking for SMU is 100%. A nice chest shove opens this up for a TD.
The Defense
The defensive preseason SP+ for the Mustangs is 42nd in the country after allowing 22.1 PPG a year ago (32nd in FBS) and having lost their entire pass rush to graduation or the NFL Draft. SMU is losing 33 tackles for loss and 21.5 sacks from the ‘24 defensive line.
SMU brought in five different DL from the portal for their two-deep. Cameron Robertson returns at DE after logging seven TFL’s and four sacks in ‘24.
CB Deuce Harmon returns from last season where he logged eight PBU’s and an INT. LB Zakye Barker comes in from ECU where he logged 12 TFL’s last season.
Above– Clemson used motion to set up their quick tunnel screen.
Above– Thanks to great downfield blocking their screen has a chance to score. WR’s and TE’s have to be violent and aggressive downfield blockers. You can see the chase from the DE who saw screen late.
Above– It was a 1-on-1 shot here for SMU and the defender got blown up. Tackling in a phone booth is still a thing, even if less of a thing, in the 2020’s.
2025 Prediction
Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images
The Canyonero Keys to Victory for the ‘Canes this season over SMU is to win the big game. A road trip to Fort Worth shouldn’t be daunting as the SMU crowd isn’t notoriously rowdy. This is one of those “win the big one” games in order to make the ACC Championship Game in December.
Way too early prediction: SMU by 3. The Mustangs will finish 10-2 this season with a strength of schedule hitting 45th per SP+. I think SMU’s schedule works out perfectly for them and they might only lose to Clemson without another Jennings turnover implosion.