USF gave Miami an early scare a year ago but I expect the ‘Canes to rely on the ground game to annihilate the Bulls at Hard Rock Stadium.
The South Florida Bulls finished the 2024 season 7-6 (4-4 in conference) with one of those losses coming at home to the Miami Hurricanes. The Bulls didn’t just manage to get back to a bowl game, they won the Hawaii Bowl over a plucky San Jose State team.
USF head coach Alex Golesh has coached the Bulls to a 14-12 record including consecutive 4-4 seasons in the American. Under Golesh the Bulls have played in and won their bowl twice in two seasons. Prior to Golesh, USF hadn’t been to a bowl since the 2018 season under then HC Charlie Strong.
Much like the ‘24 season, USF starts off with a murderers row of games in 2025. The Bulls will open the season hosting the Boise State Broncos on a Thursday before hitting the road to face the Florida Gators and Miami Hurricanes in back-to-back weeks.
This off-season the Bulls pulled in the AAC’s second beset recruiting class but that moniker only puts USF at 73rd in the country. USF’s Preseason Overall SP+ is 77th in FBS while their ST’s are 25th.
The Lean ‘Canes Business Model
Problem: The Bulls don’t play any defense. Even with QB Byrum Brown out with an injury for the majority of the season USF scored 32.2 PPG (33rd in FBS). But on the other side of the ball the Bulls allowed 29.8 PPG (99th in FBS).
Solution: The Bulls have stuck with Todd Orlando as their DC and did not replace the talent they lost in the portal with exciting new talent. Too many transfers went “up” to P4 teams from the defensive side with little to show in return.
Unique Value Proposition: Tempo. The Bulls are the 2nd fastest offense in the country behind only North Texas. USF values their wide open, Josh Heupel style offense that uses all 53 1⁄3 yards of the field and moves extremely fast.
Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
Key Metric: The two key metrics for USF in ‘25 are: Byrum Brown games played and defensive SP+. If Brown is injured again the season will be just another 4-4 type of affair in the AAC. They need a healthy QB, and they need to play better defense. Remember, the SP+ is adjusted for tempo so the bottom 30 defense they play isn’t entirely because of tempo.
Competitive Advantage: Tempo is the UVP and the competitive advantage… or is it? Is tempo really helping USF win games or would the Bulls benefit from slowing the game down and playing better defense?
The Achievers
When it comes to High Achievers I actually think for a G5 the Bulls are doing what matters which is being different. In an era where teams have slowed down the tempo USF is still cooking at a fast pace. The top G5’s typically have a clear UVP– Army and Navy with their option offensive systems and Boise State with their defense.
The Low Achievers. Being a generic NCAA team won’t help you stand out in the G5. The low G5 achievers always seem to have one thing in common- being bland. Think about how exciting the App State and Coastal Carolina offenses could be when they were being different. Stay weird, USF. On the low end, don’t be a Charlotte or UAB and hire the wrong head coach (Biff Poggi and Trent Dilfer, respectively) while running a generic NCAA Offense.
The Offense
The preseason SP+ for USF on offense is 44th. USF returns Brown but the majority of the skill players have left the program. USF’s deep threat WR, Keshaun Singleton, returns after averaging 15.7 yards per catch with three TD’s in ‘24.
Brown will be joined by transfer RB Cartevious Norton and transfer receivers in Mudia Reuben and Chas Nimrod. All three are ‘transfer down’ types after their original prep signings.
The offensive line is mostly in tact from a year ago which is a good thing for USF. It’s hard to get the big boys in the ‘shape’ needed to run that style of offense with tempo and the amount of reps they’ll be getting in practices and games.
The Film: USF vs. Southern Miss from 2024
USF whooped Southern Miss 49-24 with Brown healthy. The Bulls were 10-of-18 on 3rd and 4th downs while So Miss finished 2-of-11. USF averaged 7.2 yards per carry with five TD’s on the ground while the Golden Eagles hit the Bulls for 12 yards per pass attempt and 20.9 yards per reception.
Above– How do you gash a defense as a spread team? Make them defend all 53 1⁄3 yards of width. USF loves wide receiver splits and it drags the safeties out of the box. So Miss can’t even rotate down at this point.
Above– USM has a 5.5 man box (overhang outside the TE but playing the run). USF pulls a guard and inserts the TE as a lead blocker.
Above– Football is a numbers game. How do you get numbers to the point of attack? 1- Have a mobile QB that’s a threat to run. 2- Tag RPO’s to eat up linebackers and safeties. 3- Pull an OL like USF does to kick out a LB. 4- Insert the TE as a lead blocker.
Above– And now it’s a track meet for the RB against the LB’ers and the Safety. Win the angle, win the track meet.
The Defense
The defensive preseason SP+ for the Bulls is 107th in the country. USF returns linebacker Mac Harris to lead the defense. Harris logged 12 TFL’s and four sacks a year ago. DT Bernard Gooden also returns after a 10 TFL performance last season.
CB Brent Austin took his 10 PBU’s back to California as a member of the Cal Golden Bears transfer class. DB’s Tavin Ward and De’Shawn Rucker should be returning to Tampa in ‘25.
USF runs a fairly standard 4-2-5 defense for this era of college football. Now I know I said I would just destroy USF on the ground and stop the BS but I love this trick play from Southern Miss vs. USF’s bad defense here.
Above– The quick swing screen to the right side of the defense with the OL all cutting and selling the throw away.
Above– After the ‘slip’ the line pops up and the QB is fairly unnoticed fading away. You can see one defender say “uh oh” and start to turn back.
Above– Nothing but space and opportunity for Tate Rodemaker in the open field.
2025 Prediction
Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images
The Canyonero Keys to Victory for the ‘Canes this season over USF is to just run them over with Bully Ball. There is no reason to get cute and try to run trick plays or sling the ball 40 times against a clearly inferior opponent and especially a bad defense like South Florida’s. Pound them for 300+ yards rushing and make the Bulls regret stepping on the field.
Way too early prediction: Miami by 21. USF will finish 7-6 once again and more than likely 4-4 in the AAC before their third consecutive bowl game. Miami should dominate the Bulls every time out and especially at Hard Rock. USF has the 63rd toughest strength of schedule per the SP+.