The Canyonero Keys to Victory are back for another season. The Hurricanes schedule is much more difficult than in 2024, and that means Mario Cristobal will have to coach above his ability in order to return to double-digit win territory.
The 2024 Canyonero Keys to Victory turned out to be nearly as prophetic as if I had Biff Tannen’s Gray’s Sports Almanac in my hands while writing the post.
In the post I predicted a 10-2 regular season record, called the Cal trip a trap game, said Miami would have to out bully ball Georgia Tech, out gun Syracuse, and had too much talent for FSU and Louisville.
The Canyonero Keys have gone from being a lark to being a soothsayer and that’s why they deserve their own post for the second straight season. It’s also a great ‘one stop shop’ receipt zone if I’m a complete buffoon and get things wrong, but I would have to be wrong first- now wouldn’t I?
The 2025 Season
Miami’s goal once again can be no less than an ACC Championship Game appearance and an invite to the College Football Playoff. If the ‘Canes can’t manage to get into the CFBPO, it’s a lost season once again. Save the moral victories for teams that aren’t recruiting in the ~60% range for Blue Chip Ratio.
Miami once again found their starting QB in the transfer portal. This time it’s UGA’s Carson Beck. The knock on Beck is his elbow injury and the fact that he played on UGA teams with tons of NFL Draft talent. The knock on Cam Ward a year ago was his lack of experience playing on a high level winner. That’s certainly not a Beck-related-issue.
Once again we’re left drooling over the recruiting class and transfer portal additions brought in by Mario Cristobal and staff. Will Miami Hurricanes fans be left outside of the playoff looking through the window at the real college football programs?
In ‘24, the unexplained fires happened against Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and QB Haynes King, and against Kyle McCord and Syracuse. Against GT, Brent Key’s squad had to rotate QB’s because of King’s shoulder issues. Against ‘Cuse, Miami fumbled away a 21-0 early lead.
The prognostication for ‘25 looks like a 9-3 regular season. Miami plays four preseason ranked squads in ‘25 versus only two in ‘24. While the Hurricanes have swapped out defensive coordinators (Lance Guidry for Corey Hetherman) is that really enough to improve the defense in one season’s time?
Miami has to win Bully Ball versus…
The whole thing kicks off with a Week One showdown with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Labor Day weekend. Notre Dame has a new quarterback in CJ Carr and will look to their NFL ready offensive line and stud running back Jeremiyah Love to set the tone.
ND returns a ton of talent from their CFBPO runner-up squad and used the transfer portal to add a few pieces, but not an overhaul. This will be a battle of who has the more cohesive unit to start the season as both teams will look to ground-and-pound their way to a win.
The matchup with the Irish is the game we’ve been sold by Cristobal he’s built this program for. Heading into year four we’ll find out if that’s true. This will be another true test of his program philosophy and culture- may the best coach win when it comes to Cristobal and Marcus Freeman.
Bully Ball should work just fine
Bethune-Cookman, South Florida, and Stanford are those teams where caveman football should be no match for them. A brutal run game of Mark Fletcher and CharMar Brown should be too much for this trio to handle. After softening them up, Jordan Lyle can come in and take one to the house against a tired defense.
I had the USF Bulls as more of a gunner in ‘24, but after a quarter or so QB Byrum Brown and HC Alex Golesh ran out of steam. Brown is back after a weird/injured season a year ago and I think the Bulls will return to their 7-6 ways.
Stanford is really bad and just replaced their head coach during spring practice. The era of Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw producing incredible talent and GPA’s is long over. Stanford still has the latter, but not the former in the NIL and transfer portal era.
The Gunners
Beck is a different QB than Cam Ward. I think Beck is more of a game manager, ball control type and Miami will rely on the running game in 2025 more than in ‘24. Syracuse is going to come out and try to out gun Miami once again.
Instead of with McCord this time it’s Steve Angeli behind center. The Notre Dame transfer won’t have Trebor Pena or Oronde Gadsden II- but Fran Browns seems like the kind of guy who can pull magic tricks when need be.
The Florida Gators are another team that I think goes to the air instead of trying to match Miami on the ground. Florida has QB DJ Lagway back and relied heavily on a ‘run it back’ roster rather than the transfer portal. Billy Napier wanted to build slowly through culture and it’s been a slow build in Gainesville. The Gators won 3-4 more games than I anticipated in ‘24.
Avoid self-implosion
The Florida State Seminoles are reeling coming off of a 2-10 season. Mike Norvell pulled a Larry Coker and cleaned house on some of his long running assistants and coordinators. The ‘Noles aren’t going to be very good, I’d predict something around 6-6, but this is a trap game much like Cal a year ago.
Miami has to play FSU in Tallahassee, sandwiched between two off weeks. Mario Cristobal is 2-2 coming off of the off week in three years at Miami. While Miami managed a nice win over Louisville on the road Cristobal lost the bowl game dipping Miami to 0-2 in bowls.
It’s certainly a game that Miami should (and must) win on paper but that’s why it’s on the self-implosion radar.
Head down and drive
Teams like NC State, Virginia Tech and Pitt are always going to be a wrench in the Hurricanes plans. Miami faces the Hokies and Panthers on the road in late November. The ‘Canes host the Wolfpack and a desperate Dave Doeren prior to the back-to-back road trip to end the season.
NCSU has a more comfortable CJ Bailey at QB with Noah Rogers to throw to. Of course Doeren changed OC’s again and lost his DC to a head coaching role at Marshall. Miami should just put its head down and drive over the Pack.
VT and Pitt are a different story. The Hokies are QB Kyron Drones and a transfer portal melee of new names. Blacksburg on the road in the cold is always a tough place to play.
Pitt is a run it back squad with QB Eli Holstein returning along with most of his skill guys. Pitt tanked the end of their season having started 7-0 and ending 7-6. This could be the last run for HC Pat Narduzzi if another implosion at Pitt takes place.
The Cadillac of games goes to…
Which games are barreling straight ahead at the ‘Canes on the 2025 schedule? That’s Louisville and SMU. Jeff Brohm will never get out schemed by Cristobal. Brohm has another veteran QB reclamation project, this time in USC transfer Miller Moss. This will be three transfer QB’s in a row that Brohm tries to turn into one year wonders.
While Miami hosts the Cardinals, the ‘Canes will hit the road to Fort Worth, TX to face the SMU Mustangs. I wasn’t sure if I should put SMU in the gunners category or not, but this is a game of the year candidate if both teams live up to their preseason billing.
SMU returns QB Kevin Jennings who is turnover prone but dynamic. If Miami doesn’t figure out tackling, tracking and run fits SMU will gash the ‘Canes on the ground. Rhett Lashlee knows how to dial up a gameplan to beat sloppy defenses.
The Wrap
This is the opposite of the schedule from 2024. The ‘24 slate played right into Miami’s hands including facing FSU and Va. Tech at home, getting an off week after Cal and before Louisville, and facing Florida in Week One followed by three cupcakes.
Well that’s not happening for Cristobal’s ‘Canes in ‘25. Miami hosts Notre Dame in primetime in front of the world in Week One before two cupcakes. Then the ‘Canes have to host an improved Gators team before their first off week. A rival at home and an off week looming can be a tricky combination for a coach to juggle.
As previously stated, Miami then has FSU in the middle of those off weeks, both coming close together and early in the season. FSU is also on the road in Tallahassee against a desperate Norvell. Cristobal will have to shake the ‘injury bug’ label with no late season off week to get players healthy.
The ‘Canes then play seven straight games, two against ranked teams, three of the seven on the road. While Miami has the pleasure of hosting ND, UF and Louisville this year, the Hurricanes do travel to FSU, SMU, VT and Pitt.
This schedule is no easy slate and without first overall NFL Draft pick Cam Ward at QB I can see this team take a slide back down to reality. My way too early 2025 prediction is 9-3 for the Hurricanes and another December without a trip to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game.