ESPN’s Bill Connelly analyzed the lucky and unlucky teams in college football using turnovers, close games, and injuries. The ACC was lucky and unlucky in 2024.
The Clemson Tigers won the 2024 ACC Championship Game over the SMU Mustangs 34-31 in Charlotte, NC this past December. The Tigers required Miami’s self-implosion in order to backdoor into the ACCCG where they edged SMU on a late game 56-yard field goal.
After their big win over the ‘Stangs, the Tigers immediately dropped their playoff game to the Texas Longhorns by a double-digit margin. The Tigers were back on top of one of the “Little 2” of the Power 4.
According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the Tigers were both lucky and good. Bill C, as he’s known across social media, lucky is made up of turnover margin above the mean and close game win totals. His theory is that of all the fumbles forced, half should be recovered by the offense.
Turnovers
When it comes to turnover margin- Clemson, Boston College and Cal were the luckiest teams. While the most unlucky turnover teams were Florida State, NC State and SMU. It’s no surprise that a sloppy and undisciplined team like FSU and a high risk-reward QB like Kevin Jennings (SMU) resulted in higher turnover numbers. When it comes to TO’s, Miami wasn’t very lucky and in fact a smidge unlucky with the ball not bouncing Miami’s way.
Close Games
Regarding close games, Connelly analyzes how many games the computers say a team should’ve won compared to their actual record. Is your QB really as clutch as Patrick Mahomes or did “luck” just roll your alma mater’s way?
The close game champions of the ACC were the Syracuse Orange and Duke Blue Devils. ‘Cuse stole two wins (I wonder where one came from) while Duke stole just over one win.
On the flip side, Cal and Miami both lost just short of two games they otherwise shouldn’t have (take your pick of the three losses re Miami). NCSU and Va. Tech were also unlucky in ‘24, with Cal and VT both losing on miracle comebacks by Miami.
Injuries
Connelly also analyzed lineup consistency in regards to ‘injury luck.’ It’s a no brainer that some of the best teams regarding talent in FBS were also healthy. Stacking depth and remaining healthy is a recipe for success in any sport.
Obviously some injuries are more ‘important’ than others. Miami without Cam Ward is a six win program, while Miami without OL Ryan Rodriguez still won 10 games.
The most consistent lineups in the ACC were UVA, Miami, SMU and Louisville. The least consistent lineups in the ACC belong to Florida State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse. Clearly for some teams, ie. Syracuse, that inconsistency didn’t hurt the Orange from playing about their means.
What about 2025?
Connelly lists two of Miami’s 2025 opponents as likely candidates for an improved record. Both are instate rivals in the Florida Gators and FSU Seminoles. The Gators are on a predicted upswing thanks to DJ Lagway coming into his own at QB and the fact that head coach Billy Napier has improved the team from 5-7 to 8-5 while facing the 13th toughest schedule in ‘24. If UF can stay healthy and Lagway pans out the Gators could be in the College Football Playoff race.
The Seminoles retained Mike Norvell after a 2-10 season but fired their coordinators. According to Bill C, “(FSU) were 129th in turnovers luck, 99th in second-order win difference and 110th in injury ratio.” No matter who is behind center or calling plays that’s a recipe for disaster and it was one on the field for the ‘Noles last season.
For Miami, the Hurricanes have to prove they can stay healthy, at least neutral with regards to luck, but also finish their close games in ‘25. Miami’s strength of schedule is going to increase from 60th a year ago with more ranked teams on the schedule in the upcoming season.
This season Miami will rely on a QB that’s already been injured and turnover prone at times. The hope is that a new defensive coordinator can flip that turnover luck where Miami has struggled for years on the field in producing turnovers.
In the end luck isn’t real. The best and healthiest teams typically survive and advance. Stack talent, keep them healthy, win ball games.