Jaylen Waddle enters his fourth year in a unique spot in the Dolphins offense. He’s often been looked at as a second fiddle to Tyreek Hill despite putting up numbers that show he’s capable of being a WR1. What should fantasy owners expect from Waddle in 2024?
2024 Fantasy Football Profile: Jaylen Waddle
2023 in Review
Last year was a bit of a down year for Waddle. He finished with the lowest amount of receiving yards in his career with 1,014 yards. While that total was only one yard short of his 2021 total, it’s still lower. He also finished with his fewest ever receiving touchdowns, only finding the endzone four times.
It’s been an ugly trend for Waddle as each of his first three seasons he’s seen less targets than the year before and caught less passes than the year before. He still managed 14 yards per reception in 2023, but you have to wonder if that number is going to decline even more. With Tua Tagovailoa targeting Hill more and more, questions are starting to rise about Waddle’s impact.
2024 Projection
Waddle is slowly approaching the “now or never” territory for fantasy football and also his future in Miami. Every time you think this might be the year he breaks out, it just doesn’t happen.
Again, it’s easier said than done trying to be productive in an offense with Hill, but Tagovailoa is looking his way less and less each year. That’s where the problem lies. It’s hard to see a reality where Waddle even surpasses 1,000 receiving yards in 2024. While his touchdown numbers may raise slightly, the odds of the total getting up to what it was in 2021 seems unlikely.
Round 3
Jaylen Waddle
100+ targets & 1,000+ receiving yards each of his three years in the NFL.
Top 12 fantasy WR both seasons with 16+ appearances.
Averaging 8+ targets per game in his last 10 games played.
Honorable Mention: Isiah Pachecopic.twitter.com/tfHxS5fRAP https://t.co/3TB86SdkHI
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) August 14, 2024
The only positive aspect for Waddle and those who still believe in him is there aren’t many other targets in the Dolphins system. Jonnu Smith is now TE1 for Miami, and he is the only other possibility to see consistent targets. That is unless you want to include Braxton Berrios into the conversation.
For those who are looking to see the good in Waddle, he saw 24% of the total targets last year in Mike McDaniel’s offense. That may be Waddle’s best shot to take a step forward in 2024.
Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football ADP
FantasyPros currently has Waddle’s ADP at 36 with a range of 20-44. His draft spot may seem reasonable for a guy who has recorded three straight seasons of 1,000+ yards, but it’s honestly a bit of a surprise seeing him that high.
Stats don’t tell the whole picture, but they never lie… and his stats drop more by the year. Anyone taking him in the top 50 is gambling big on the fact that he will finally take a step or two forward this season. However, that seems unlikely for as long as Tyreek Hill runs the show as Tagovailoa’s top guy.
McDaniel continues to believe in Waddle though and until he loses that belief, Waddle is still someone that should eventually be drafted. Taking him ahead of someone like D.J. Moore or Mike Evans is where things get dicey. Waddle seems better suited to have an ADP in the 50-75 range.
Main Photo Courtesy of Denny Medley – USA Today Sports
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