When the Las Vegas Raiders gave defensive tackle Christian Wilkins a four-year, $110 million contract in free agency during the 2024 offseason, a third-round compensatory pick for the Miami Dolphins seemed an inevitability. Now it looks unlikely.
After playing in only five games with the Raiders, Wilkins suffered a foot injury that required season-ending surgery. While the NFL’s compensatory picks formula isn’t affected by a player struggling on the field, play time does factor in significantly.
Wilkins was on the field for just 22.2 percent of the Raiders’ defensive snaps in 2024, which likely dropped the compensation headed back to Miami from a third- to a fourth-round pick in the 2025 NFL draft.
Here is OTC’s final 2025 compensatory picks projection:https://t.co/yZ8kNsqdVU pic.twitter.com/IxIr9dusVU
— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) January 21, 2025
The NFL won’t officially award compensatory picks until March and OverTheCap’s projections aren’t a guarantee. Last year, OTC correctly projected 27 of the 36 compensatory selections. The other nine were the correct team, but a round off the mark.
Wilkins isn’t far below OTC’s projected cut-off that separates third-round picks from fourth-rounders.
The good news for the Dolphins is that they’re likely to get a third-round pick thanks to the five-year, $100 million deal Robert Hunt received from the Carolina Panthers. And while several other contracts cancel out, DeShon Elliott’s two-year, $6 million deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers should give Miami one more pick just a few spots ahead of Mr. Irrelevant.