The Miami Dolphins are fighting for their playoff lives this weekend, with a win over the Buffalo Bills enough to punch their ticket to the postseason for the first time since 2016 and just the second time since 2008. And while Sunday’s contest with the Buffalo Bills is a high-stakes affair, we just nearly missed it being an even bigger clash. Had the Dolphins managed to pull out a 31-28 loss in Week 2 to Buffalo in Miami’s home opener, tomorrow’s clash would be for the AFC East crown as well.
But those accolades will have to wait for Miami. For now, it is all about getting into the dance. One of the big perks of being a division winner is the ability to host a home playoff game — and while Miami’s odds of seeing that materialize for themselves this winter are unlikely, they’re not impossible.
The Dolphins are still very much in play to host a playoff game in the AFC Divisional round if they win this weekend and score a win over their opponent in the Wild Card round.
That’s a big if, we know.
But it’s totally possible. Miami, with a win over Buffalo, would take the No. 5 see in the AFC playoff field and face off against the conference’s No. 4 seed, which will be whichever team wins the AFC South. Here are how things currently stand in the AFC:
- Kansas City Chiefs (clinched No. 1 seed)
- Buffalo Bills (can be No. 2 or No. 3 seed)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (can be No. 2 or No. 3 seed)
- Tennessee Titans (can be No. 4 seed with win or Colts loss, could be No. 6 or No. 7 seed with loss and other AFC contender losses or could miss playoffs)
- Miami Dolphins (win and in)
- Baltimore Ravens (win and in)
- Cleveland Browns (win and in)
- Indianapolis Colts (currently on outside looking in)
Assuming each of the “win and in” teams successfully scores a Week 17 victory, the standings would stay chalk and Indianapolis at 11-5 would be tied for first in the division and subsequently miss the playoffs all together. That would pair Miami up with a familiar face, Ryan Tannehill, in the postseason’s first round. The other matchups would include the Bills versus the Browns and the Ravens versus the Steelers.
Should the Wild Card round be filled with upsets, Miami could find themselves as the second best remaining seed in the conference and thus be in line for a home playoff game in the divisional round. A Dolphins win paired with a Ravens win over the Steelers and a Browns upset over the Bills would see Miami hosting Baltimore in the second round.
Improbable? Most definitely. But not impossible. And remember this: the 2019 NFL Playoffs saw three lower seeds score road wins in the postseason in four tries (and the lone home victor was the Houston Texans, who beat a Bills team that choked away a big lead). The 2018 playoffs also saw three road wins in the Wild Card round. So Miami’s final scheduled home game for this season may have been played two weeks ago, but seeing another one before the season ends all together isn’t impossible.
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