The Miami Dolphins continue to face questions over the future of starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, with a difficult decision to be made during the 2026 off-season.
Some reports have suggested the Dolphins could look at benching the 27-year-old, with fans clamouring for an opportunity to see Quinn Ewers, the current third-string QB, develop with real game experience through to the end of the season.
Whether such a situation occurs or not is unclear, with the former fifth-overall pick leading the league in interceptions and looking a shadow of his 2023 self, and the Dolphins will need to genuinely consider how best to handle their extremely expensive passer once the season is over.
How the Miami Dolphins Can Handle Tua Tagovailoa Next Year
Scenario 1: Keep Him
The Miami Dolphins appear poised to undergo a retooling rather than a full rebuild next offseason, tweaking the existing roster in hopes of achieving better success in 2026 under the guidance of a new general manager.
If that is the aim, then it would make sense for the team to keep Tagovailoa in place. He is experienced, showed brilliance in 2023, and remains one of the more accurate quarterbacks in the NFL, giving the team a genuine chance of bouncing back should other pieces fall into place.
At the time of writing, prior to the Dolphins’ game against the Buffalo Bills, Tagovailoa still sports a 41-30 career record, with a 68.1% completion rate, throwing for 115 touchdowns to 55 interceptions and should be able to find his form once again, when circumstances around him improve.
The Dolphins have suffered some key injuries this season, including starting tackle Austin Jackson and number one receiver Tyreek Hill. Losing such important players on offense has clearly had an impact on the Dolphins, who may be hoping for a rebound from the team as a whole with some fresh faces brought in to reinvigorate the existing personnel.
If they keep Tagovailoa for 2026, the Dolphins will see his cap hit jump up to $56.4 million, with $54 million guaranteed – the last of the guaranteed money in his deal. It would be unlikely that Tagovailoa would entertain a restructure, so if the team keeps him around, then it will come with the heavy financial cost that will make it difficult for the new general manager to make too many adjustments to the roster.
Scenario 2: Trade Him
If the Dolphins feel that keeping Tagovailoa around is detrimental, financially or on the field, then the best situation would be to find a suitable trade partner needing a solid, accurate quarterback.
Tagovailoa could do with a fresh start and could bounce back with a new environment and teammates, and there could be many teams that look at his potential and existing body of work and decide he could be what is needed in the short-to-medium term.
He’s still young and signed through the next three years, so he would give a team needing a stopgap veteran leader to take the roster to the next level, while potentially mentoring a younger guy that comes out of any of the next two Drafts.
This scenario could work if the Dolphins are willing to pay down some of Tagovailoa’s contract, as NFL.com’s Ian Rappoport previously talked about, meaning that the contract would be more enticing for other teams financially.
This could work if it is designated as a post-June 1st trade, as the Dolphins would take a $13.4 million dead cap hit but save $43 million in cap space should this happen. Should a trade be made pre-June 1st, the Dolphins would only save around $11.2 million.
Teams around the league may look at the examples of quarterbacks flourishing in new environments this year, including Daniel Jones with the Indianapolis Colts and Sam Darnold with the Seattle Seahawks, and decide that taking Tagovailoa off the Dolphins’ hands could actually pay dividends quickly.
The long-term security of his contract could also make him more valuable to some teams, as it would give them stability at the most important position in football, with a player who will undoubtedly be determined to prove his doubters wrong.
Scenario 3: Cut Him
The worst scenario for the Miami Dolphins, at least in the short term, would be to cut Tagovailoa altogether.
Tagovailoa’s contract is an albatross, and cutting him, regardless of the June-1st designation, comes with some heavy dead cap penalties that could push the Dolphins into being one of the worst teams in the league next year.
Pre-June 1st, the Dolphins would incur a $99.2 million dead cap, meaning they would be $42.8 million worse off compared to if they simply kept hold of him.
For a post-June 1st designation, the dead cap would be $67.4 million, putting the Dolphins $11 million worse off – better than pre-June 1st, but still significantly worse than if they just held onto him.
Being cut seems extremely unlikely, unless owner Stephen Ross and the next general manager make the decision that a full teardown rebuild is needed.
In this instance, the Dolphins may simply take the financial hit for a year and look at building a younger, cheaper roster in the immediate future, trading away other players for assets and working hard to reshape everything from the ground up.
It seems that Scenarios 1 and 2 would be the preference for a Miami Dolphins team not looking to rebuild fully, but rather tweak and retool a roster that should be more competitive, but it won’t be until a new general manager comes in that the team’s medium-to-long-term plans become clear and the question over Tagovailoa’s future will remain a constant topic of discussion.
Main Image: Sam Navarro – Imagn Images
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