NFL insider Tom Pelissero analyzes the quarterback market and where Tagovailoa stands.
The Rich Eisen Show is the Switzerland of NFL media. Players and stories, from what I’ve seen, get a fair shake and balanced take. That’s not something you see within daily sports shows due to most talking heads not wanting to give ground on their takes, no matter how wrong they could be.
I don’t see that with Eisen, and generally give an ear or two when he and guests speak on topics and teams I cover or follow as a fan.
It just so happens that yesterday, the ever-lasting topic of Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s contract extension came up on the show, and NFL insider Tom Pelissero gave his take on what the market looks like post-Trevor Lawrence deal and what an anonymous GM said he would do in the Dolphins shoes.
When can #FinsUp fans expect @Tua to get his extension similar to that of Trevor Lawrence? Could Miami really make him play out 2024?#NFL pic.twitter.com/ftogHauwO3
— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) June 18, 2024
Most of the overview Pelissero gave has been covered throughout the offseason, but there are a few points I would like to address.
The Trevor Lawrence deal seems to have moved the market even further from where the Dolphins would like to pay Tagovailoa, but just because a quarterback got overpaid doesn’t mean you have to make the same move.
Last offseason, we saw Daniel Jones get overpaid, and the market corrected itself. There haven’t been any other overpaid mediocre quarterbacks with low ceilings, and his deal is referred to as a cautionary tale now.
Lawrence may be overpaid as of right now, but it could be a good deal in a few years if his progression lands in the vicinity of his ceiling. Like Emmanuel Acho said on “Speak,” Lawrence is “getting paid on promise, not production.”
If nobody else will say it, I will: Trevor Lawrence is getting paid because of what he did at Clemson. He’s still getting paid off promise, not production. pic.twitter.com/2g41gVEWF3
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) June 14, 2024
When the physical abilities are there and praised as a generational prospect from high school, the market-altering deal makes some sort of sense. I wouldn’t have paid Lawrence that much, especially when Goff, who as of now is better than him and still on the right side of thirty, just drew $53 million annually from the market.
Either way, Lawrence has cachet through being touted as a generational prospect, a number one pick, and physically has all the abilities to be a top-five quarterback if he puts all the pieces together. I can’t say the same for Tagovailoa.
Tagovailoa came into the NFL with an injury and sustained more injuries through his first three years, as Pelissero alluded to. He was reportedly thinking about retirement. Although I don’t believe that was ever going to happen, it’s a direct quote that’ll be used against him in these negotiations.
Tagovailoa has the numbers backing him and a clean bill of health last season, but I wonder how dug in Tagovailoa’s camp is on a certain number. Is it a number for guaranteed money or an annual salary? I once speculated that he would have a quick negotiation and give a bit of a discount, knowing that he needs support around him, and wouldn’t give in to the ego of setting the market. I worry for Dolphins fans that it could be a possibility.
Is he scratching and clawing for every dollar possible, or is the team nickel and diming him? I know that comes with the territory in negotiation. But there comes a time when you have to say nearly $50 million annually is generational wealth, and just a few more million a year isn’t worth possibly derailing a season.
Now I don’t want to be a pocket watcher, but I said during voluntary workouts that even though they got the ball rolling, the deal could take some time to get done, and it seems that’s coming to fruition.
When Pelissero mentioned the anonymous GM who said he would just let Tagovailoa play out his fifth-year option and possibly use franchise tags, it reminded me of the Lamar Jackson situation last offseason. Lamar had more leverage with his MVP but still had a long, drawn-out process before the deal was done.
The Ravens even let Jackson semi-test the market, and the market said no way. Although there could have been some collusion with owners to not trade for Jackson, it brought him back to the table for a quicker process.
The same could happen to Tagovailoa, and I hope for Dolphins fans that he’s not dead set on Lawrence’s deal being the floor of his extension. If so, this deal may not happen any time soon and will be a big question that looms over the Dolphins this season.
Let us know in the comments if Tua Tagovailoa should target an extension that exceeds Trevor Lawrence’s deal.