Tyreek Hill has been a no-doubt first-round fantasy wide receiver for multiple years, but last year’s data did not paint a good picture of him. Hill entered the 2024 fantasy draft season as the WR4 with an overall ADP of eight. He was coming off back-to-back monster fantasy seasons of over 1700 receiving yards and 170-plus targets. Last season, his production dropped off significantly. The question now looms: As we proceed into the thick of fantasy re-draft season, can we use the recency bias on Tyreek Hill to our advantage?
Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Outlook: Value WR2/WR3 With Upside
Fantasy Football Profile: Tyreek Hill
2024 in Review
Tyreek Hill did not return his first-round value, finishing 2024 as the overall PPR WR18. He finished with 218 fantasy points, his lowest total since 2019, and averaged only 12.8 fantasy points per game. That per-game output was his lowest since his rookie year. He had 965 yards receiving, the third-lowest of his career, and his 123 targets were his lowest since 2019.
His receiving metrics were even more glaring. Hill finished with career lows in yards per route run and yards after catch per reception. Now, part of that is due to the starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, playing in just 11 games. Looking further, we found a dip in the Miami Dolphins passing game that hurt Hill. In 2022 and 2023, Tagovailoa’s percentage of throws that traveled 2o or more yards was 13.8% and 11.2% respectively. That number dropped to an NFL-low 6% in 2024.
2025 Projection
Tyreek Hill is projected to score 263 fantasy points on 94 receptions for 1,184 yards and eight touchdowns. Hill is a threat to score anytime he touches the ball. If the aforementioned passing trend continues, his after-the-catch ability will be a key factor in determining his fantasy success.
Another obvious factor in Hill’s projection, outside of his health, will be the availability of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Now you can say that about most wide receivers, but you can not argue Hill’s production with Tua. When Tua returned to action in week 8, you saw Hill return to form, taking out the two outliers in weeks 15 and 18, where he totaled just 9.6 fantasy points. He averaged 18.2 fantasy points, right in line with his career per-game average.
Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football ADP
Tyreek Hill’s current half-point PPR ranking is WR12 with an overall ADP of 29.7, putting him in the middle of round three. Our takeaway here is twofold. First, do you consider last year an outlier for Hill? If not, then consider the cost associated with drafting him in fantasy this season.
When we discussed Hill in March, he had a second-round ADP of 22.3. However, he can now be had in round three. For those fantasy players who start their drafts WR-WR, he would be your WR3 with WR1 upside. Use the recency bias to your advantage this season. Hill is not costing you a first-round pick, and we like the chances he outperforms his ADP. When drafting a player, it is important not to buy them at their ceiling or buy all the risk. We do not have to do that in 2025, he comes with at a discount.
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