What is the Miami Dolphins' floor for wins in 2021?

Much of the Miami Dolphins’ first two seasons under the direction of Brian Flores has been around exceeding expectations. But Year 3 of the Flores regime is going to have a bit of a different flavor to it: the expectations are high. And with one of the NFL’s young cores of players thanks to a rapid influx of talent through two years of NFL drafts, there is no certainty (but plenty of optimism) for what the Dolphins can and will be this season.

As has been told a hundred times over this offseason, these Dolphins will go as far as their second-year quarterback will take them. Tua Tagovailoa is looking to prove the Dolphins right and bounce back from a trying rookie season — with much of the weight of the organization riding on his shoulders in the process.

But say Tagovailoa falters and struggles to improve upon his up and down play from the 2020 season. What would the floor be for Miami Dolphins wins this upcoming season in such a scenario? Remember — 16 game seasons are a thing of the past; this will be either a winning or losing football team in the fall unless the team manages to secure a rare tie.

Somethings that we know about Miami as things currently stand:

• Their defense is better, deeper and more well rounded than last year
• Their offensive weaponry will be able to create more explosive plays
• The coaching will be as good as ever from a discipline and defensive perspective 
• The offensive coaching and schematics will be more tailored to Tagovailoa’s strengths

All of that adds up to this: if Miami gets similar quarterback play, the rest of the team is better off than last year’s team and the back half of the schedule does soften significantly. Sure, the Dolphins were fortunate to secure a Week 16 win last season against the Raiders. That one had a fair amount of luck.

But if Miami sees Tagovailoa as a similar caliber quarterback, the rest of this team is still strong enough to win 7 or 8 football games. Both of those scenarios, of course, would result in a losing season. But the year would be far from a disastrous campaign (barring injuries) and even that’s assuming Tagovailoa makes no progress. All signs point to plenty of promise that Brian Flores can steer the Dolphins to consecutive winning seasons — a feat not accomplished in nearly 20 years.