The higher seed came out on top in each of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games on Tuesday, but the two lower seeds pulled off upsets in the No. 9 vs. 10 contests on Wednesday, setting up a pair of No. 8 vs. 10 matchups on Friday to determine the final playoff teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences.
In the East, the No. 10 Heat will visit the No. 8 Hawks in a second consecutive battle of divisional rivals for Atlanta. The first of those matchups didn’t go well for the Hawks, who really struggled to get the ball in the basket against the NBA’s No. 2 defense on Tuesday in Orlando.
Trae Young (8-of-21), Zaccharie Risacher (2-of-10), and Caris LeVert (3-of-11) were among the players who had poor shooting nights vs. the Magic. Atlanta made a season-low four 3-pointers on the night and shot just 38.1% from the floor, including 19.0% from beyond the arc.
While the Heat weren’t quite as good defensively during the regular season as Orlando, they also ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating and played very well on that end of the court in Wednesday’s win over Chicago. The Bulls scored just 90 points on 39.8% shooting (27.0% on three-pointers). As the Hawks return home, they’ll need to figure out how to make more headway against the Heat’s defense than they did against the Magic’s.
The Hawks, who won 12 of their last 20 games of the regular season, had more momentum entering the play-in tournament than the Heat, who won just 12 of their last 33. Atlanta will also have home-court advantage on Friday.
But the two teams split their season series, and given how the first round of the play-in tournament played out, oddsmakers aren’t willing to give Atlanta the typical edge that would be awarded to the higher seed and home team. As I was writing this article, BetOnline.ag modified their betting line, which had been a pick-em, to make the Heat one-point favorites.
Over in the West, it’s the No. 8 Grizzlies hosting the No. 10 Mavericks in a battle of teams whose seasons have taken a nose-dive since the trade deadline. While Dallas was hammered by injuries and has been dealing with the fallout of the immensely unpopular Luka Doncic trade, Memphis has undergone a head coaching change and fell several spots in the standings.
The only reason the Grizzlies didn’t have the worst record (13-18) among all 10 Western Conference playoff/play-in teams between February 7 and the end of the regular season is because the Mavericks (12-18) were slightly worse.
Both teams were competitive in their first play-in matchups though. Memphis took the Warriors down to the wire in Golden State on Tuesday, while Dallas comfortably handled the Kings in Sacramento on Wednesday. There’s no shortage of talent on either roster, especially in the frontcourt, where Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. is a candidate for All-NBA and Defensive Player of the Year honors, while Mavericks big man Anthony Davis would have been too if he’d played enough games to qualify.
The Mavs’ Achilles heel is in their backcourt, where star point guard Kyrie Irving is unavailable after going down in March with a season-ending ACL tear. Dallas actually went without a starting point guard vs. Sacramento, rolling with a jumbo lineup featuring Davis, Dereck Lively, P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall, and Klay Thompson.
But former two-way player Brandon Williams, who was promoted to the 15-man roster in the final week of the season, showed why Dallas wanted him for the postseason. The undrafted point guard put up 17 points and five assists in 18 minutes off the bench — the Mavs outscored Sacramento by 24 points during those minutes.
The Grizzlies’ own star point guard, Ja Morant, vowed to play in Friday’s do-or-die game, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be. Morant sustained a sprained right ankle on Tuesday and clearly lost a step late in the game as he tried to play through that injury.
Home-court advantage could end up being a real factor here. The Grizzlies posted a 26-15 record in Memphis this season, while the Mavs went just 17-25 on the road. That’s likely a major reason why the oddsmakers at BetOnline currently have Memphis as the six-point favorite.
We want to know what you think. Will either the Heat or Mavericks become the first No. 10 seed since the play-in tournament was implemented in 2021 to earn a playoff spot? Or will the Hawks and Grizzlies defend their home courts and earn first-round series against Cleveland and Oklahoma City, respectively?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!
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