For the third straight year, the Miami Heat had to get through the Play-In Tournament. For the third straight year, they did so and reached the postseason. The first year, Miami was able to reach the NBA Finals. The last two years haven’t gone as well. They did become the first-ever 10th seed to advance past the play-in this year. Their reward? A first round meeting with the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers, who of course, were heavily favored in the matchup.
On Monday, they experienced one of the most lopsided postseason losses in NBA history. A 55-point loss to the Cavaliers saw the Heat swept unceremoniously from the opening round. The 122 points Miami was outscored by is a NBA playoff record for a four-game sweep. Let’s take a look at some of the Heat’s notable free agents this offseason and predict whether they will stay or leave.
Stay Or Go? Predicting What Happens With Heat Free Agents
Alec Burks – Leave
Now 14 seasons deep into his career, Alec Burks has become somewhat of an NBA vagabond. The 33-year-old has played for eight different teams over the last seven years (including two stints with the New York Knicks). He signed with Miami on a one-year deal last offseason.
In 2024-25, Burks averaged 7.3 points, his lowest since 2016-17. The 6-foot-6 shooting guard/small forward did make a career-best 42.5% of his three-point tries. On a minimum salary this season, expect Burks to once again receive one for 2025-26, just with a different team.
Davion Mitchell (Restricted) – Stay
Selected with the ninth overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, Davion Mitchell had yet to find his footing in the league. The 26-year-old couldn’t see substantial time on the court behind De’Aaron Fox while with the Sacramento Kings. He began this season with the Toronto Raptors before being traded to the Heat in February. That is when Mitchell finally began showcasing the potential expected of him as a lottery pick.
With Miami, Mitchell started half (13 of 26) of his regular season appearances, as well as three of four postseason contests. In the regular season games, the 6-foot-2 point guard averaged 10.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.4 steals. Someone who looked like they could stay in the league due to their work on defense, Mitchell also showed improvements on the offensive end with shooting splits of 50.4/44.7/70.2. Expect the Heat to not allow him to walk away in free agency.
Duncan Robinson (ETO) – Stay
The recently-turned 31-year-old Duncan Robinson signed a five-year, $90 million deal in the 2021 offseason. He has an early termination option for the upcoming season that he would need to exercise by June 29. Since his salary is set to be $19.888 million for 2025-26, it’s hard to foresee him opting out as Robinson wouldn’t see that salary in free agency.
In 2024-25, Robinson started exactly half of his appearances (37 of 74). The 6-foot-7 shooting guard/small forward posted averages of 11.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. His 39.3% accuracy from beyond the arc is right in line with his career mark of 39.7%. Robinson is the second longest-tenured Miami player spending all seven of his NBA seasons with them.
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