Analyzing this month’s SimMarlins market movement on SimBull

Are you buying or selling the 44-58 Miami Marlins?

Selling for 2021 while buying for 2022 and beyond: that has been the Marlins’ mindset in the days leading up to the MLB trade deadline. Does that statement apply to the SimMalrins stock on SimBull as well?

Here is our usual monthly check-in on the SimMLB market, assessing if/when/how much you should consider investing in the Fish. Let’s take a look.

Last Month’s Price: $28.83

Current Price: $28.52

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The Marlins roster is, at least temporarily, in complete disarray. Seemingly every other day, another player gets designated for assignment. Miami has cycled through nine different starting pitchers since the All-Star break—so much for that being a “strength” of the team. The offense has perked up, but that doesn’t seem sustainable with steady center fielder Starling Marte headed off to Oakland and Garrett Cooper undergoing season-ending elbow surgery. Even closer’s duties are in flux following the trade of Yimi García to the Astros.

Despite a plus-four run differential implying that they are better than their 44-58 record, the Marlins don’t have what it takes to dig out of their double-digit-game deficit in the National League East.

But perhaps their organizational momentum has shifted! The Marlins on Wednesday flipped Marte for former elite pitching prospect Jesús Luzardo, a value that was almost too good to be true. They continue to inch closer to signing top draft pick Kahlil Watson, which would lock up what many evaluators rated among MLB’s most talented draft classes earlier this month.

There is little doubt that the 2022 Marlins will be better than the current iteration. The question of how much better is critical to informing whether you should pick up some SimMarlins shares at their relatively low price (eighth-lowest in SimMLB).

Miami’s path to improvement involves some combination of loosening the purse strings and leveraging some of their young, controllable pitching for major league-ready bats. Maybe the Marlins make several splashy moves prior to Friday’s 4 p.m. ET trade deadline that show they’re determined to win. If not, the attention turns how rookies like Chisholm and Jesús Sánchez perform in August/September and what gets accomplished during the offseason.