Ryan Weathers is listed as the Marlins’ probable starter for Thursday’s game against the Nationals. He’ll be activated from the 60-day injured list and take the ball for the first time in three months. Miami will need to open a spot on the 40-man roster.
Weathers has struggled through a second straight injury-riddled year. An index finger strain on his throwing hand cost him most of the second half of 2024. This year saw him miss the first six weeks after he suffered a Spring Training forearm strain. Weathers returned and took five starts over three weeks before he sustained the lat injury.
The health problems have interrupted a potential breakout. The former seventh overall pick turned in a 3.63 ERA with solid strikeout and walk numbers across 16 starts a year ago. He has worked 24 2/3 frames of 3.28 ERA ball while punching out 22.5% of opponents this year. Weathers has pushed his average fastball velocity above 97 MPH. His changeup and breaking ball have each gotten strong results. Weathers has also shown far better command over his two seasons in Miami than he did early in his career with the Padres. He has the ability to be a mid-rotation starter if his arm holds up.
Weathers has crossed the three-year service threshold and will reach arbitration for the first time in the offseason. His limited body of work will keep his salary affordable, and he’s under team control for three years. He’s part of a talented but volatile collection of starting pitchers in Miami.
The Fish have Sandy Alcantara signed for $17MM next season. Weathers, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Max Meyer are all eligible for arbitration. They’ve all shown flashes of promise but haven’t proven they can stay healthy. Eury Pérez is still in his pre-arbitration years. Janson Junk and Ryan Gusto could compete for spots at the back end. That’s before accounting for a minor league pipeline that features Thomas White, Robby Snelling and Noble Meyer. Alcantara will probably be on the trade block during the winter. Much of the Marlins’ short-term future will hinge on the health and development of their collection of younger arms.
Cabrera may be the biggest x-factor. He has had a career season, working to a 3.57 earned run average over a personal-high 24 starts. He has performed at a top-of-the-rotation level going back to the beginning of May: 110 innings of 2.95 ERA ball with a 26.5% strikeout rate. The run was halted when an elbow sprain sent him to the injured list last week. Cabrera also has a history of shoulder problems and hadn’t reached 100 MLB innings in a season until this year.
The Marlins shut the righty down for a week after the diagnosis. Manager Clayton McCullough said this afternoon that Cabrera will now ramp up a throwing program that gives him a chance to return this season (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). McCullough unsurprisingly suggested the team would quickly shut things down if Cabrera’s elbow doesn’t respond well but indicated the pitcher and team both want to see how he feels as he throws with more intensity. Even if Miami isn’t playing for anything in the standings, Cabrera would surely feel a lot better about his offseason if he’s able to get back on the mound for an appearance or two before the year closes.