Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera is one of the most interesting trade candidates this summer. After he struggled to throw strikes through his first three-plus seasons, he’s amidst a breakout year. That makes him a potential fit for virtually every team that is evaluating the rotation market.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported in June that Cabrera was among a number of starting pitchers on the Cubs’ radar. Francys Romero adds the Mets as another club that has shown interest. It stands to reason the Marlins have heard from most win-now teams on both Cabrera and former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara.
The 27-year-old Cabrera has a 3.33 earned run average in 15 appearances. That’s weighed down by a pair of five-run clunkers in April. He has been downright excellent over his past 11 starts. He owns a 2.11 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of opposing hitters in that time. Cabrera has gotten grounders on nearly half the batted balls against him while keeping his walks to a decent 8% clip. It’s by far the best stretch of his big league career — both in terms of throwing strikes and keeping runs off the board.
There’s danger in carving up samples that small. Cabrera had a career 4.49 ERA and 13.2% walk rate before this 11-start run. Still, he’s now at two and a half months of top-of-the-rotation production. The Marlins had limited him to around five innings for most of that stretch. They’ve shown more trust in his ability to work deep into games over his past two appearances. Cabrera worked seven innings in each, allowing a combined two runs with 11 strikeouts and one walk against the Twins and Brewers, respectively.
While Cabrera hasn’t shown this level before, this isn’t entirely out of nowhere. The 6’4″ hurler was a staple on top prospect lists. Evaluators credited him with at least mid-rotation caliber stuff. He has a five-pitch mix and averages north of 96 MPH with both his sinker and four-seam fastball. His curveball and slider are missing bats. It has long been easy to dream on the upside. The question has been whether the command would ever progress to even league average. While it has taken a little longer than the Marlins might’ve hoped, that now seems to be falling into place.
Miami doesn’t need to make Cabrera available. He entered this season with a little under three years of service time. He’s playing on a $1.95MM salary in his first of four arbitration years as a Super Two player. The money isn’t an issue even by Marlins standards. He’s under club control through 2028. Even with the widespread expectation that they’ll deal Alcantara, the Fish could hold Cabrera to form a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Eury Pérez. They’ve played well of late, and while it’s highly unlikely to make them a legitimate Wild Card contender this season, it could signify that they’re not too far from being competitive.
It’d nevertheless be a surprise if they closed the door on offers completely. President of baseball operations Peter Bendix has embarked on a complete teardown and rebuild. The front office may have some trepidation about Cabrera’s old command woes returning. Even if they fully buy into his current form, they’re aware of the injury risk for any pitcher — particularly one who throws as hard as Cabrera does. The Marlins have seen Max Meyer, Ryan Weathers and Braxton Garrett battle various injuries. Pérez and Alcantara required Tommy John surgeries; Alcantara hasn’t come back from the surgery nearly as dominant as he had been. Cabrera himself missed time in both 2023 and ’24 with shoulder impingements.
The Marlins would demand a significant trade return. Cabrera has surpassed Alcantara as the team’s top realistic trade chip. Few other pitchers on non-contenders have the same ceiling. The affordability and team control window would appeal both to all-in teams and to those that feel their competitive window is just opening. It stands to reason the Fish would add even more of a premium in talks with other NL East teams.
New York will welcome Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea back from the injured list this weekend. They’ll have a starting five of Manaea, Senga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas for the first time all year. Injuries to Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn have tested the depth. The Mets figure to add at least one starter in addition to potential bullpen and center field pursuits.