My Marlins Top 30 prospects

All of the top talent in the Marlins farm system, ranked.

I sat out the annual preseason prospect rankings tradition this time. It would have been disingenuous to comment authoritatively on players who largely disappeared from the public eye in 2020. The Marlins organization in particular was tight-lipped about what transpired at their alternate training site. I didn’t want to parrot vague information or subconsciously favor individuals just for sharing their development on social media.

With most of the 2021 Minor League Baseball season complete and dozens of recent additions via trades and the MLB Draft, now’s the right time to update you on who’s making waves in this objectively great farm system.

This Top 30 reflects my own preferences and not the Fish Stripes staff as a whole.

Most outlets are married to MLB’s archaic definition of prospect eligibility which uses at-bats/innings pitched/non-September days on the major league active roster.

My criteria is slightly different. I graduate players from prospect status once they have taken 200 career MLB plate appearances or have faced 200 career MLB batters. Also, players can graduate if active for at least half a major league season (81 games)—that’s all about catching relievers and bench bats from slipping through the cracks (sorry, Anthony Bender!).

This Top 30 is divided into six tiers, plus a seventh tier of just-misses. Prospects within the same tier are largely interchangeable, which means when considering their ceiling, floor, injury risk, position, room for development, ability to adjust and intangibles, I expect them to have similar career value.

My opinions on Marlins prospects are no doubt influenced by local and national experts. I encourage you to check out their own up-to-date top prospect lists:

• Fish On The Farm (Alex Carver and Daniel De Vivo)
• Ian Smith
• FanGraphs (Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein)
• Baseball America ($)

Next to each player’s name, I put their current level of competition in parentheses. Those with an asterisk (*) are either on the Marlins 40-man roster or would be if not for injury/illness.

Tier I

1) RHP Edward Cabrera* (AAA)

2) RHP Sixto Sánchez* (AAA—injury)

Cabrera is the only selection in my top three tiers who was inherited from the previous Marlins regime. He would be a staple of their major league rotation by now if not for a preseason injury. Cabrera’s fastball, breaking ball and changeup each have the potential to be ridiculously fun pitches depending on which day you’re watching him.

The quality of Sixto’s stuff distracts from his special pitchability. No other prospect-eligible player in this organization is a safer bet to get outs at the highest level when healthy. In the aftermath of a shoulder tear that resulted in season-ending surgery, there’s just enough uncertainty to drop the 23-year-old from the No. 1 spot.

Tier II

3) RHP Max Meyer (AA)

4) SS Kahlil Watson (TBD)

5) OF JJ Bleday (AA)

6) OF Jesús Sánchez* (MLB—illness)

7) RHP Eury Pérez (A)

Bleday has spent much of his first full MiLB season hugging the Mendoza Line. The Marlins are anxious to bring him to the big leagues, but his performance simply does not merit that. I don’t anticipate too much movement on this list over the final quarter of the 2021 campaign, but Bleday could be dropped to Tier III if he continues fouling off so many pitches that he should be barreling.

Four years younger than the average Low-A Southeast batter, Pérez is striking out more than one-third of all opponents. You’d assume that the projectable 6-foot-8 teenager is raw and volatile…and you’d be wrong. The Dominican right-hander would become the youngest major league pitcher in Marlins history if recalled before the end of the 2023 season.

Tier III

8) LHP Jake Eder (AA)

9) SS José Salas (Rk)

10) 1B Lewin Díaz* (AAA)

11) LHP Dax Fulton (A)

12) RHP Zach Thompson* (MLB)

It wasn’t that complicated: if the Marlins wholeheartedly believed in Lewin Díaz, they would have traded beloved first base roadblock Jesús Aguilar last month. Perhaps they share some of my concerns about Díaz’s swing path. He’ll mash 20-plus home runs over a full-length season, but countless innocuous high fly balls as well.

I’ll be getting a lot of flak for this Thompson ranking. You’re wasting your breath because he’s about to graduate from prospect eligibility, anyway. Before that happens, I wanted to go on the record with my take that he’s legit. The 27-year-old Texas native is a surefire average major league starting pitcher, and that cannot be said of anybody below him on the list.

Tier IV

13) OF Peyton Burdick (AA)

14) RHP Jordan Holloway* (AAA/MLB shuttle)

15) OF Kameron Misner (A+)

16) C Joe Mack (TBD)

17) RHP Zach McCambley (AA)

18) SS José Devers* (AAA—injury)

Holloway has a knack for suppressing hard contact in the air. He’ll be extremely trustworthy as a high-leverage reliever even if inconsistency eventually removes him from the rotation mix.

The breakout season I anticipated from Misner hasn’t materialized, but there have been bright spots. He’s the most efficient high-volume base-stealer in the Marlins org—35-for-37 in MiLB career—and a valuable fielder at all three outfield positions.

Fish Stripes original GIF

Poor Devers cannot stay healthy—he’s been unable to play two-thirds of his team’s games during any season of his Marlins career. Still just 21 years old, though.

Tier V

19) SS Yiddi Cappe (Rk)

20) RHP Kyle Nicolas (AA)

21) OF Griffin Conine (AA)

22) SS Nasim Nuñez (A)

23) OF Víctor Mesa Jr. (A)

24) C Alex Jackson* (MLB)

25) OF Bryan De La Cruz* (MLB)

It’s difficult to place Conine, the presumptive Marlins Minor League Player of the Year. Nobody else in this farm system has as much all-fields game power. However, he just snapped a streak of striking out in 25 consecutive games. His swinging strike rate is alarmingly high. He’s far more likely to be Peter O’Brien than Joey Gallo…but that upside is so tantalizing.

Are Nuñez’s on-base skills legit—career .347 OBP while being young for each level—or is he the beneficiary of low-level pitchers struggling to hit a tiny target? He has drawn 70 walks in 103 minor league games. Nuñez could rise quickly on my list in 2022 if his offensive game translates to High-A, because his shortstop defense on its own gives him a nice floor.

BDLC will prove to be a great return for rental reliever Yimi García if he can elevate the ball more consistently.

Tier VI

26) RHP Nick Neidert* (AAA/MLB shuttle)

27) OF Connor Scott (A+)

28) LHP Braxton Garrett* (AAA/MLB shuttle)

29) OF Monte Harrison* (AAA)

30) RHP Evan Fitterer (A)

I was excited about Neidert entering this year. Alas, despite a league-average ERA in occasional MLB action, his poor control and propensity for fly balls are perplexing given his track record. That’s not going to work for him long term. I’m putting trust him in to make adjustments.

The soon-to-be 26-year-old Harrison is doubtful to be a competent big league hitter. At least he can impact games with his other skills.

The No. 30 spot is about avoiding regret: I don’t want to get caught sleeping on Fitterer and his many starter attributes. We have yet to see him challenged to go two full times through an opposing lineup. That should be changing shortly, though.

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Several of these ranked players will graduate from 200 PA/200 TBF prospect eligibility by season’s end—certainly Thompson and Neidert, likely Garrett, Holloway and J. Sánchez, plus Jackson and De La Cruz have an outside shot. In anticipation of that, here are the next men up (Tier VII):

• 2B Cody Morissette (TBD)
• RHP Cody Poteet (MLB—injury)
• C Payton Henry (AAA)
• OF/1B Jerar Encarnación* (AA—injury)
• C Will Banfield (A+)
• 1B Troy Johnston (A+)
• SS/2B Bryson Brigman (AAA)
• C Nick Fortes (AAA)