The Philadelphia Phillies have stumbled out of the gate. They sit towards the bottom of the NL East with the lowly Washington Nationals and the Miami Marlins. The team’s expectations could not have been higher after making the World Series last season. Thankfully, baseball is a marathon and not a sprint, and it is too early for Philly fans to overreact to their slow start.
Phillies vs. Marlins Betting
There are promising signs that the offense can help keep the team afloat while they patiently await the return of Bryce Harper. Trea Turner continues to carry the club with his bat and defense. The NL MVP candidate is hitting an impressive .349 but only three RBIs, which speaks to the rest of the lineup struggling to get on base.
The Phillies got a much-needed offensive explosion against NL Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara. They jumped on Alcantara early and often with nine earned runs and went on to score 15 overall. Alcantara has historically struggled against Philadelphia Turner went 3-for-4 with three runs and an RBI. Their offense goes as Turner goes, and last night, they looked great. He played as an MVP candidate should.
The Battle of Two NL East Foes
The two NL East foes lock horns again this evening in what should be a pitchers’ duel. Jesús Luzardo and Aaron Nola meet in a big divisional matchup. Luzardo has been masterful, only allowing one earned run through 12 2/3 innings. However, Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola has struggled to start the year. Nola has been knocked around in his first two starts against the Yankees and Rangers. He gave up 11 hits and eight runs which is not ideal for an ace like him. I think this is the perfect spot for Nola to bounce back against a Marlins team that strikes out at one of the highest rates in the league.
Per Baseball Savant, Nola is in the 83rd percentile in chase rate, which means how often he gets hitters to go after pitches that are out of the zone. He has 9 strikeouts through two games, and the Marlins rank in the bottom five in the league in strikeouts per game with 9.5. This feels like a good opportunity for Nola to get back on track and perform like the ace he is. Last season Nola ranked in the top 10 with 10.32 strikeouts per 9 innings. He will look to get back to his dominant self.
The Phillies are even worse when it comes to striking out, and Luzardo has great swing-and-miss stuff. They rank at the bottom of the MLB with 10.2 strikeouts per game. Luzardo has racked up 15 strikeouts in two starts. Per Baseball Savant, Luzardo ranks in the 83rd percentile in strikeout percentage and should be able to shut down the Phillies lineup with a handful of strikeouts.
The Phillies projected top three hitters of, Turner, Schwarber, and Realmuto, are not doing well against Luzardo. The trio are hitting a combined 2-for-12 with five strikeouts against the left-hander. Meanwhile, the Marlins projected top three of Chisholm, Cooper, and Arraez are 4-for-26 with 11 strikeouts against Nola. Both teams’ best hitters struggle against the respective opposing starting pitchers.
Betting Plays
This Phillies vs. Marlins betting matchup is the perfect spot to trust both starting pitchers and look to the under. Specifically, looking at the first five innings to go under and the most electric bet in sports, the NRFI (No Runs First Inning).
Plays: You can currently grab the first five under 4 (-120) and NRFI -135 at DraftKings.
Photo Credit: © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
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