Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Colorado Avalanche in Tampa, FL. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions Overview
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to watch: The Spot, ALT
Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
2025–26 Season Series: Avalanche 1, Lightning 0
Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning (25-13-3) host the Colorado Avalanche (31-3-7) in what should be a heavyweight clash on ice. Colorado enters with the best record in the NHL and was riding a massive 10-game winning streak before losing to the Panthers. Tampa brings its own thunder and a packed arsenal of scorers led by Nikita Kucherov. On a seven-game winning streak, the Bolts last took the ice in a 7–3 rout of the San Jose Sharks, showcasing offensive firepower and depth scoring. Colorado’s loss to the Florida Panthers saw the Avalanche captain, Gabriel Landeskog, score, and Scott Wedgewood make 23 saves.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
Tampa Bay’s season has been a blend of eye-popping offence and occasional defensive eyebrow raises. Nikita Kucherov leads the Bolts in goals (20), assists (39), and points (59), and his chemistry with linemates like Jake Guentzel (43 points) and Brandon Hagel (19 goals) has been a cornerstone of Tampa’s attack. The Lightning have a reputation for scoring first and often, but Colorado is a different beast. They are a disciplined, depth-heavy machine with league-leading metrics. Tampa will need to sharpen its defensive play and limit odd-man rushes if it hopes to slay the Avalanche at home.
Keys to Victory – Tampa Bay
NHL Predictions thinks the Bolts need to jump on early scoring chances. The Lightning need to score first and force Colorado out of its structured comfort zone. Stay out of the penalty box: Colorado’s league-best penalty kill (85.6%) punishes opponents who give them man-advantage breathing room. The Bolts need to limit high-danger turnovers: The Avalanche thrive on transition and possession control. Tampa must protect the puck and avoid giveaways. If they can get contributions from all four lines and keep pace on special teams, they’ll stay competitive deep into the third period.
Colorado Avalanche Outlook
The Avalanche are currently the NHL’s best team on paper and in results, earning a remarkable 31-3-7 record and showing little sign of slowing down. They’ve dominated at home and have only a handful of regulation losses all season. Colorado’s offence is balanced and explosive, led by Nathan MacKinnon, who tops the Avalanche in goals (35), assists (39), and points (74). Their depth down the middle, defence, and special teams, especially the penalty kill, are among the best in the league. Defensively, Colorado has allowed just a few third-period goals this season, making them tough to crack late in games.
Keys to Victory – Colorado
NHL Predictions thinks Colorado needs to control possession from puck drop. Dictating tempo will keep Tampa’s top scorers frustrated and off balance. Use special teams to tilt momentum: Colorado’s penalty kill and opportunistic power play can flip a close game. Stay sharp defensively late. Despite Tampa’s firepower, Colorado’s structure has kept them competitive even when games tighten. If Colorado holds its usual discipline and puck management, they’ll create traffic in front of the net and capitalize on second chances.
NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?
This game looks like a classic clash of styles: Tampa’s high-octane offence and Colorado’s balanced, suffocating dominance meet at center ice. While Tampa has the home-ice crowd and scoring depth, Colorado’s consistency this season has been nothing short of historic.
Prediction: Avalanche 4, Lightning 3 (OT)
Prop Bets of the Night
Always check updated lineups and odds before placing bets or finalizing DFS rosters.
Lightning Team Prop – Over 3.0 Goals (-120): Tampa’s offence should break through multiple times in what could be a high-scoring tilt.
Avalanche Anytime Scorer – Nathan MacKinnon (-150): MacKinnon’s point production remains elite and he’s the most dangerous Avalanche threat.
Final Thoughts
Expect a fast, competitive matchup with star talent on full display. Tampa wants to prove it belongs among the league’s elite, while Colorado is playing like the franchise that could hoist the Stanley Cup. If this game were a movie, it’d be part thriller, part highlight reel.
Main photo by: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
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