Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Florida Panthers in Sunrise, Florida. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions Overview
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to Watch: Scripps Sports Florida, The Spot
Location: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL
2025–26 Season Series: Panthers 1, Lightning 1 (Most recent: Florida 5–2)
The Lightning (20-13-3) travel across the state to face divisional rivals the Panthers (20-14-2) in what should be a heated (as always in the state) Atlantic Division showdown with playoff implications. The Lightning most recently defeated the St. Louis Blues 4–1 at home, closing out a four-game homestand (2-2) with a solid all-around performance. Darren Raddysh led the way with three points (one goal, two assists), while Andrei Vasilevskiy made 23 saves in a strong showing. Luke Kunin and Anton Lundell scored within a minute during a five-goal third period for the Florida Panthers, who rolled past the Carolina Hurricanes 5-2 on Tuesday night.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
Tampa Bay’s fortunes have swung in recent weeks, from inconsistent results to flashes of strong, complete hockey. The Lightning have a knack for scoring at least three goals, as they’re 17-4-0 when they do. Their top forwards, like Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Oliver Bjorkstrand, provide consistent offence. Defensively, Tampa will need to stay disciplined, especially against a Florida team that can strike quickly on the power play and with a stick to the head. Goaltending from Vasilevskiy (3-2 in his last five games), when healthy, gives Tampa a chance in any matchup, but the team must tighten up in its own end to stay competitive on the road.
Keys to Victory for the Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL Predictions thinks Tampa must minimize penalties and generate offence at even strength while preventing dumb penalties that put the Panthers on the power play. Florida is 8-5-0 when scoring with the extra man this season, and likes quantity over quality. They have to get contributions from depth scoring: Secondary forwards like Raddysh, Bjorkstrand, and Cirelli need to chip in goals, especially if Florida clamps down on Kucherov and Point. Reducing giveaways and turnovers in the neutral zone will prevent Florida’s transition attack from generating high-quality looks.
Florida Panthers Outlook
The Panthers enter this matchup with a roster built for balanced scoring and strong puck control. Florida’s top offensive contributors, Brad Marchand (20 goals, 21 assists) and Sam Bennett (seven goals, six assists in his last 10 games) have been production catalysts in 2025-26. Florida’s power play has been a recent strength. They are 17th in the league with 19%. This helps their 3.19 goals per game. In their most recent meeting, the Panthers defeated the Lightning 5–2 in Tampa, with Sam Reinhart scoring twice. Defensively and in net, consistency will be key. When Florida limits transitions and forces Tampa into the corners, they can generate controlled offence and leverage their top line.
Keys to Victory If You’re Florida
NHL Predictions thinks Florida needs to strike early and often. Getting on the board first is key to forcing Tampa Bay into a reactive mode. It’s something Florida has exploited this season. The Panthers must protect possession and prevent odd-man rushes that Tampa thrives on. If Florida controls the pace and consistently pressures Tampa’s defence, they’ll create high-danger chances and increase their odds of winning this divisional showdown.
NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?
This matchup has all the ingredients of a tight divisional battle: scoring prowess vs disciplined structure. Florida’s recent home success and division positioning give them a slight edge, but Tampa’s bounce-back win over the Blues shows they’re dangerous when they click.
Prediction: Panthers 4, Lightning 3 (OT)
Prop Bets of the Night
This is a good chance to add our disclaimer. Please check social media for the very latest lineup news and betting lines before locking in your daily fantasy rosters or using these suggestions as law.
Lightning Team Prop – Over 2.5 Goals (+110): Tampa’s offense tends to produce when they find their rhythm, and they should get multiple chances here.
Panthers Anytime Scorer – Sam Reinhart (-145): Reinhart has been a key contributor and is likely to be involved offensively again.
Final Thoughts
This divisional showdown is a key Atlantic Division pivot point late in December. Florida wants to rebound at home after a tough loss, while Tampa aims to build momentum on the road. Expect a physical game with special teams playing a pivotal role, and the stadium ambulance humming with the engine running.
Main Photo Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
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