Wow. If you have been on social media, and if you are reading this you likely have, the stories coming into today’s matchup would have your heading spinning, upside down, underwater, trying to touch your stick to your skates. Ah, do we need to explain? Let’s start with the Florida Panthers, good idea, right? There’s enough going on for the Ottawa Senators. But before we get into all that, this is NHL Predictions with us here at Last Word On Hockey. Each day, we breakdown the key matchups, storylines, and statistical analysis, to try to narrow in on a winner.
NHL Predictions Panthers and Senators
Season Series: Florida won their first of four meetings this year, 6-2 back on October 11th.
Puck Drop: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to Watch: Sportsnet One, TVAS2, NHL Network, SCRIPPS
Location: Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON
The stories that are going around are a plenty. We could go with the fact that Sam Bennett, the reigning Conn Smythe award winner was left off the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympic Team Canada roster. Furthermore, the Panthers just put Noah Gregor on waivers. This would mean that there is a roster spot for…Matthew Tkachuk. There’s a storyline, PRINT IT! We will note, that as of print, it seems that Tkachuk is still listed as being on long-term injured reserve. Therefore, there isn’t a guarantee he makes his season debut on the home ice of his brother.
For the Ottawa Senator story, we just want to point out that Linus Ullmark remains on a leave of absence. The club hasn’t announced the reason, and we should respect the privacy. General manager Steve Staios came with his statement to protect his players. Even if it put a little extra gas on the fire, because he knows it is what was necessary. So, are you ready for some hockey or what?
So, What Else is Up in Ottawa?
The Sens will use this to go one of two ways. Thursday was an absolute turnstile, and playing the league leading Avalanche, in Colorado? They played well, aside from the five goals in 6:18 during the second period. Let’s just hope Mads Sogaard is able to rebound. At 25 years old, one thing all the injuries over the course of his career have done, is keep him fresh. It has been a pattern throughout his career, if he has played more than 32 games with a team, he puts up good save percentage numbers (never below .908). Unfortunately, he has only done that four times, since 2018-19, and that’s going back to his WHL days with the Medicine Hat Tigers.
We think he gets a shot in the NHL at some point, but for now, this seems like Leevi Merilainen‘s show. At least until Ully gets back in game shape, however long it takes him, is just fine with us. Now of course, with the signing of James Reimer to a professional tryout, he could very well bump Merilainen if he gets some rhythm. However, he is still unable to play for the Sens, until he signs a full contract.
Well, something else for Ottawa, is that we want our captain, we want Brady Tkachuk. If this does end up as the Tkachuk Bowl, and for that matter, even if Matthew isn’t fit, Brady needs to turn into a wrecking ball. He needs to put the capital F in F1. Even before the noise, there was some members of the media questioning Brady’s game right now, what’s going on? He’s got 21 points in 23 games. He’s thrown 72 hits, won 55.7% of the faceoffs he’s taken, all of which in 17:38 of ice time a night. Seems pretty darn efficient to us. In addition, he just needs to focus on hockey, and taking any anger he might have out on the shoulders of his Floridian opponents.
You know another Sen who has been playing well recently, is Ridly Greig. The guy who is a pest to play against, a puck hound, he’s been getting rewarded a bit. In his last 11 games, he has four goals and three assists. In his last four games, he has lost just 15 draws, compared to 26 victories. He has also been above 16:23 of ice time in each of those last four. He’s been playing well recently, and feeling accomplished. Playing a team like Florida, his game will be front-and-centre.
The Ups-and-Downs Have Hit Florida, Too
The story for Florida this year has definitely not been a pleasant one. As we enter play on this Saturday morning, they sit just one spot ahead of Ottawa in the NHL’s Atlantic Division standings. The reason, and we did already touch on part of it, but it is injuries. Aleksander Barkov has missed the entire season, thus far. Likewise, Matthew Tkachuk has yet to lace them up for Florida. Hence, their poor showing in the standings.
On the other side of the coin, is what has allowed them to trudge through the swampy season, and manage to be above .500. Well, it has been thanks to a few of the guys that did make their respective Olympic squads. We will highlight, for Team Canada, Brad Marchand and for Team USA, Seth Jones. Moreover, coming into the year, with his age (37), there was a bit of an unknown with Marchand’s level of play. Some weren’t sure there would be room for him on the roster, that is considered one of the hardest to make in all of sport. But he did make it. So far, he has 23 goals and 23 assists for 46 points in 41 games. A huge year really.
Furthermore, the play of defenceman Seth Jones has been equally impressive. Really, he has played excellent since coming over in trade from the Chicago Blackhawks late last winter. He helped support the Cats blueline to a championship. Moreover, in 61 total regular season games in Florida, he has eight goals and 25 assists, and averaging around 24 minutes nightly.
Now is as good as time as any for our disclaimer to please check social media before locking in your daily fantasy roster.
NHL Predictions
Ottawa, we think they take advantage of a banged up Florida lineup, and considering their relative, overall health. Not to mention the motivation for Ottawa for one last push, if they want to show the Eastern Conference they are serious about NHL Stanley Cup Playoff contention.
Prediction: Panthers 1 – Senators 4
Prop Bets
Okay, we are taking Brady Tkachuk. If he can’t get one of the four goals for Ottawa, you can call me a Homer, but I won’t mine, honestly. For Florida, let’s take Bennett to score. He knows he is on the injury list for Team Canada. He wants to be on the top of that list. Furthermore, he has been very consistent for the last little bit. In his last 18 games, he has only been held pointless four times. There was even a nine-game point streak in there, that was only stopped two games ago. In those 18 games, he has 10 goals and 11 assists. We think that makes him a good candidate to hit the back of the net.
Main Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
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