Aaron Ekblad appears the least likely of the Panthers’ three major pending unrestricted free agents to sign a new deal with the club, Pierre LeBrun said on TSN’s Early Trading on Tuesday.
“I’m not going to say there’s no chance he re-signs, but the reality is that I don’t think there’s been a lot of negotiation throughout the year since last summer on Aaron Ekblad,” LeBrun said. “I think the term was an issue the last time both sides talked about a potential extension. There’s some hard miles there on Ekblad, although he’s a very important player on that team.”
Testing the free agent waters isn’t Ekblad’s first choice. During the later stages of their championship run, he was public about his desire to stay with the Panthers, who drafted him first overall in 2014. However, while LeBrun relays that the Panthers aren’t willing to offer him a max-term extension, the AAV of the deal was also a point of contention as recently as a couple of weeks ago, according to David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period.
With Florida not offering him maximum security nor matching the $7.5MM cap hit of his expiring contract, Ekblad may feel he’s leaving too much on the table by staying in Sunrise. He’ll be the most coveted defenseman on the market and will rank high among our top 50 free agents this summer – that list will release ahead of Friday’s draft. Those “hard miles” LeBrun mentioned could sway some suitors away from offering him the most extended contract. Still, as he’s only eligible for a seven-year deal if he hits the market, that may be more appealing to some than an eight-year deal is to the Cats.
Ekblad hasn’t played a full 82-game schedule since 2018-19, and he’s only hit the 70-game mark once since then. He’s lost at least 20 games due to injury in three of the last five seasons, not including the 20-game ban he received this year for performance-enhancing substances.
When healthy this year, though, Ekblad showed he’s still a top-pairing threat when in the lineup. He got some power-play minutes back after Brandon Montour left for the Kraken in free agency last summer, and his point totals rebounded in kind after underwhelming offensive showings in 2022-23 and 2023-24. He produced a 3-30–33 scoring line in 56 games, the fourth-highest points per game rate of his career, and averaged north of 23 minutes per game in the process.
Ekblad’s possession impacts haven’t been elite at any point in his career, but he’s never been a defensive liability, either. That didn’t change in 2024-25, posting a 55.9 CF% at even-strength that was 1.1% higher relative to Florida’s possession play without him on the ice.
The 29-year-old is likely a year or two past his absolute peak earning potential, a risk he took when signing an eight-year, $60MM extension immediately upon becoming eligible to do so in the final year of his entry-level contract. All 11 of his NHL seasons have been spent in a Panthers jersey, and he’s far and away the most impactful defenseman in Panthers franchise history. He’s first in games played (732), goals (118), assists (262), points (380), and second in plus-minus (+96) behind frequent partner Gustav Forsling’s +166 mark over the last five years.
AFP Analytics projects Ekblad could earn $7.8MM per season on a max-term seven-year deal on the open market, meaning right-shot-needy teams who aren’t in a favorable cap position like the Avalanche and Stars won’t be in the conversation. Other teams with more cash to spend in a contending position or looking to make the jump, like the Hurricanes, Sabres, Blue Jackets, and Red Wings, could be legitimate suitors if he doesn’t sign a new deal with Florida.
Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images.