Questions surrounding the future between the Colorado Avalanche and a star player have come to the forefront. Martin Necas is eligible to sign a contract extension with the Colorado Avalanche come July 1st, but will he? An article by Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos has suggested that Necas’ time in Colorado hasn’t been overly enjoyable.
Martin Necas makes the list
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Avalanche Adds Martin Necas Mid-Season
The Colorado Avalance added Martin Necas through a mid-season trade, which saw star forward Mikko Rantanen shipped out. The irony of the current situation with Necas and Colorado is eerily similar to what the Avalanche went through last season with Rantanen.
Necas was in the middle of a career season while with the Carolina Hurricanes, producing 16 goals and 55 points across 49 games. While the production dipped slightly when coming to Colorado, the Nove Mesto na Morave, Czechia native maintained star-level production, while playing on the Avs top line. Necas brought an additional level of speed to the Avalanche lineup, becoming a lethal combination off the rush with star centre Nathan MacKinnon. Though seeing a dip in production, Necas’ underlying stats were better once joining Colorado, with Goals For % of 58.3 and a Relative Corsi For of 7.2. Both vast improvements from his time with the Hurricanes.
What an Extension Could Look Like
Should the Avalanche see Necas as a key piece to their long-term group, just what would a potential extension look like? Using other top-level players from the 2017 NHL Entry Draft for comparison, we can gauge a rough area of where Necas’ next contract may fall in. Players like Nick Suzuki, Robert Thomas and Josh Norris, all selected after Necas in 2017, are currently on long term, big ticket contracts. Suzuki and Norris each signed their respective contract coming out of their entry-level contract, while Thomas is closer to Necas’ situation, as the St. Louis Blues locked the star centre up after a two-year bridge deal. A key point to remember when comparing these contracts is that each of Norris, Suzuki, and Thomas are natural centres and have been deployed as top centremen much of their career, while Necas has spent majority of his time on the wing.
So, what could a Necas extension look like? Looking at each players cap hits, Suzuki ($7.875 million), Norris ($7.95 million), and Thomas ($8.125 million), outlines what an extension could look like. However, Suzuki and Norris signed their contracts back in 2022-23, while Thomas inked his deal in 2023-24. With that in mind, let’s focus on what the cap hit percentage was for each player, Suzuki’s was 9.55%, Norris’ was 9.64%, and Thomas’ was 9.73%. Taking the cap hit percentage into account and looking at the $104 million salary cap projection for the 2026-27 season, when the Necas extension would start, the potential extension would fall in the range of $9.9-$10.2 million, which would be an ideal contract if the Avalanche are getting the Necas from the 2024-25 season.
Potential Trade
Colorado general manager Chris McFarland showed last season that he isn’t afraid of taking big swings on the trade market, as he was very active during the trade deadline as well. With that history, there is potential for the Martin Necas experiment to end rather quickly between the star and the Colorado Avalanche.
Should a trade come to fruition what are some teams that could potentially be in on acquiring the Czech star?
A report has surfaced from NHLTradeRumours detailing the Philadelphia Flyers as potential trade partners. The suggested trade would see Colorado sending Necas to Philly in exchange for one of Owen Tippett or Tyson Foerster plus a first-round pick. The acquisition of Tippett or Foerster would fill the role left by Necas leaving, while the first-round draft pick gives McFarland and the Avs a valuable asset for future trades.
Another Metropolitan Division team could possibly be on the radar in a Necas trade, as NHLTradeRumours suggests the New York Rangers as kicking tires on the Avalanche star. A trade package between the Rangers and Avalanche would likely be a bit more complicated compared to a trade with Philly, but could become a larger headline trade. Some potential targets Colorado could look at getting in return for Necas are likely Will Cuylle or Brennan Othmann, both young players just breaking into the league with potential to become strong supporting players. Another option for Colorado would be acquiring a package of draft picks and prospects to then be flipped for a player to replace the hole that the departed Necas would leaving in the Avs top six.
What’s Next?
The likely outcome with Martin Necas and the Avalanche is the star forward beginning the season on the roster, with the two sides working on an extension. Should negotiations reach a stalemate, a repeat of the Rantanen situation is very likely, with McFarland pulling the trigger on a midseason trade. Regardless of how the situation plays out, Colorado is in prime position for the future. Either Necas repeats and shows he is an 80+ point player consistently and gets locked up long term or the Avs pull the trigger on a trade and perform a quick retool with the assets they receive. Which outcome is most likely? and What do fans most want to happen? Leave comments below.
Main Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
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