Welcome back to… record scratch… Welcome to our first edition of Olympic hockey predictions here at Last Word On Hockey, where we will be covering the men’s ice hockey tournament at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics each day throughout the preliminary round and beyond. As the best players in the world return to the Olympic stage, matchups take on added importance in a short, unforgiving format, where every point matters. Today’s focus is on Group B, as medal hopeful Finland opens its tournament against Slovakia in a game that could have early implications for group positioning and quarterfinal seeding. Be sure to check back daily for continued Olympic men’s hockey coverage, analysis, and predictions throughout the Games.
Olympic Hockey Predictions with Finland vs Slovakia
Date & Time: Wednesday, February 11, 10:40 a.m. Eastern Standard Time
Group: Group B
How to Watch US TV: USA, Peacock | Canada TV: CBC Gem, TSN, CBC
Venue: Santagiulia Arena in Milan, Italy
Setting the Stage
Finland enters the tournament chasing a rare Olympic gold medal repeat, having captured its first-ever Olympic ice hockey title in Beijing in 2022. While that run came without NHL participation, this roster arguably represents a more complete version of Finnish hockey, built around elite NHL talent and deep international experience. Slovakia, by contrast, projects as a middle-tier Group B team, whose realistic path runs through third place and a play-in game, rather than direct advancement. In a compressed Olympic format, Finland can significantly simplify its path with a regulation win here. For Slovakia, this matchup is more about damage control.
Finland Storyline
Finland’s identity remains unmistakable. This is a team built on structure, chemistry, and role clarity. Mikael Granlund captains a forward group anchored by Roope Hintz and Mikko Rantanen, while Sebastian Aho drives play through the middle six. On the backend, Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell form one of the most reliable defence pairings in the tournament, capable of handling heavy minutes without sacrificing puck movement. Juuse Saros is expected to start and, despite an atypical NHL season statistically, remains well-suited to international play behind a system designed to protect the middle of the ice. Finland may not overwhelm opponents with pace, but it steadily removes options until games tilt decisively.
Power play goal for Anaheim!Scored by Mikael Granlund with 06:22 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Beckett Sennecke and Jackson LaCombe.Edmonton: 5Anaheim: 4#ANAvsEDM #LetsGoOilers #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-01-27T04:21:46.612301Z
Slovakia Storyline
Slovakia’s roster features legitimate NHL talent, but its offensive ceiling remains limited against some of the most elite defencemen in the world. Juraj Slafkovský and Simon Nemec provide top-end skill, yet Slovakia’s depth falls off quickly compared to Finland. Their best chance lies in keeping this game close early, leaning on structured defence and hoping goaltending can absorb Finland’s initial push. Once trailing, Slovakia’s ability to open the game without compromising defensive integrity becomes a major issue, particularly against a potentially high flying Finnish offence.
Power play goal for Montreal!Scored by Juraj Slafkovský with 08:40 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.Buffalo: 0Montreal: 1#MTLvsBUF #SabreHood #GoHabsGo
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-02-01T00:41:39.044761Z
Prediction Inputs
Without access to standard NHL projection models, the betting market and tournament forecasts provide useful signals. Analytic previews from HockeyStats and The Athletic project Finland as a heavy favourite, with implied win probabilities hovering near 80 percent. The matchup profiles cleanly in Finland’s favour across roster depth, defensive reliability, and international chemistry. Slovakia’s path to an upset requires near-perfect goaltending and opportunistic finishing, while Finland can win this game in several different scripts. Over a 60-minute sample, Finland’s overwhelming advantages should determine the outcome.
Olympic Hockey Prediction
This shapes up as a controlled, professional performance from Finland. Slovakia may hang around early, but sustained pressure and depth should wear them down as the game progresses. This almost feels like a race to see who built team chemistry fastest before game one of the Olympics. The Slovaks will hope they won that race, but it likely won’t matter.
Prediction: Finland wins 5–2
Best Bets
Finland -1.5 puck line (-130) offers value given Finland’s skill and the ability to separate once leading. After a short feeling out process as the teams find their rhythm, expect this game to open up. Over 5.5 total goals (+102) is worth consideration if Slovakia is forced to chase late, as Finland’s counterattack becomes more aggressive once space opens up. Mikko Rantanen anytime goal scorer (+145) is a strong player-prop angle. His combination of size, finishing ability, and power-play usage makes him one of Finland’s most reliable scoring outlets.
Lineup disclaimer: Projected line combinations and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please verify official lineups prior to placing any wagers.
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Main Photo: Codie McLachlan/Getty Images